15 April 2021
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Shane Oliver

17 December 2018
Surplus and tax cuts here we come

This year’s deficit projection is cut to -$5.2 billion (from -$14.5 billion in the May Budget). On current policy, the surplus is projected to reach $19 billion, or +0.9% of GDP by 2021-20.

17 December 2018
Have we seen the bottom?

Shares have a possible Santa rally over the next two weeks or so, but will we get more weakness in 2019, as global growth indicators remain softish?

10 December 2018
Will interest rates rise or fall in 2019?

We now see the RBA cutting interest rates in the year ahead.

3 December 2018
The week ahead

Reaction to the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping will be a key driver of markets this week.

26 November 2018
No grizzly bears in this market

Share markets remained under pressure last week but I remain of the view it’s unlikely we’re sliding into a grizzly bear market as conditions aren’t in place for recession in the US, globally or Australia.

19 November 2018
The story of the three bears

Put very simply, there are three types of significant share market falls. What are they and what are we in right now?

12 November 2018
3 reasons why shares rallied after the US midterms

The big surprise from the US midterm election was there was no surprise! So why did shares rally in response?

5 November 2018
Is it bottom up from here?

Stock markets went through a “Shock-tober” but will we see a November to remember?

2 November 2018
Is there a doctor in the house?

The property market is a tick sick, with weak auction clearance rates and sales volumes in Sydney and Melbourne. But could out of cycle bank mortgage rate increases and possible changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions further the malaise?

29 October 2018
Is this a story about a scary bear market?

Apart from the Chinese, most major share markets fell last week, as worries about the global outlook continue. Will this be an unbearable story in the months leading up to Christmas?

22 October 2018
Ah, what's going on?

Do recent share market falls represent a correction and have we seen the bottom?

15 October 2018
Property & shares: where are markets heading?

Share markets fell sharply last week. Is more volatility likely? And what about the property market?

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