If you looked at the market’s reaction to CSL’s half year profit result, you would conclude that it was a “surprise” and a definite “beat”. On a day when the ASX rose by 1.1%, CSL soared by over 8.5% to close at $263.69.

You could be forgiven for asking “why” the market was surprised, given that CSL has a history of surprising on the upside. Year after year, half year after half year, CSL has consistently “beaten” forecasts. But moreover, as recently as last December, CSL confirmed profit guidance when it announced the purchase of renal specialist Vifor Pharma and set about raising $6.3bn in capital. This was 5.5 months into the half year – little can have changed in the final two weeks of December.

So why the surprise?

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