Our election expert Malcolm Mackerras looks at by-elections here and in the UK to assess the current ‘popularity’ of conservatives in both countries.

On my prediction, former very successful businessman Christopher Luxon will be New Zealand’s new prime minister.

Peter Dutton will have a good night on Saturday 15 July when the Fadden result comes in. Five days later, there should be four by-elections that will test both British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

Why do I persist with my prediction today? It’s because the Liberal Party will win Cook and the Liberal National Party of Queensland will win Fadden!

It took 45 minutes for us to flick the ABC that night. Propagandists like Grant, Reid and Foster seem to think of crowns as being like swastikas. Only a tiny minority of Australians think that way.

I will write again on the Voice referendum, but today begins with me predicting Saturday 14 October as polling day.

In my article today, I’ve decided to revert to a hobby horse of mine, ridden since 2016. I have been very critical of the way the Australian Electoral Commission has been handling federal general elections.

The time has come for me to stick my neck out and make predictions for the NSW state elections to be held on Saturday March 25.

Thorpe had always been a party machine appointee and always would be for as long as she remained a politician. She is the sort of politician who would never be directly chosen by the people.

Back on August 30 last year I had an article posted on Switzer Daily titled “Cook and Higgins: A study in contrast”. It wrongly predicted that the first by-election of the present federal term would be in Cook (NSW), created by the resignation of Scott Morrison.

Since I wrote my last two articles on Albo’s referendums many people have asked me for my predictions. To such requests I have answered: “There is one chance in three that the Voice proposal will be carried and two chances in three it will be defeated. Australia will not become a republic.”

The Victorian state election was held on 26 November last year. Normally I would write my post-election commentary in the following month, but this commentary is delayed for two reasons, first the holidays and second for a reason unique to this election.