1. All eyes on US CPI number
Global stock markets, including ours, are awaiting crucial inflation data out tonight that will help or hurt share prices. If the US Consumer Price Index number comes in better than expected, stock markets will surge tomorrow and vice versa. Overnight, the Yanks got the latest Producer Price Index, which measures business inflation and it came in at 0.4%, which was higher than the forecast of economists but lower than previous months.

2. Is a recession on the way?
Bank bosses say the economy is rocketing along but next year it could head earthward, with a thud. The AFR interviewed CEOs of our major banks who said the economy and the business sector were on the way up but the succession of past interest rate rises will eventually hit consumers in 2023. And the ANZ boss, Shayne Elliott, thinks there are a lot of people on fixed rate home loans who will have to shift to 5% plus mortgage rates, which will be “a big chunk of money coming out of their pockets.”

3. Property price to slide next year?
At an investment conference, leading market experts see house prices set to slide 15-20% in 2023. This time the doomsday prophecies for house prices came from a panel of experts from Citi bank, IFM Investors and Pepper Money. Alan Moir from Pepper was the least negative, tipping a 15% slide in national house prices but I have interviewed economists from REA.com.au who expect the fall to be a lower 10-15%. Ultimately it will depend on how many interest rate rises are out there waiting to happen.

4. A $64 billion Christmas for retailers!
On better news, retailers expect a very positive Christmas. The Australian newspaper reports that new research from the Australian Retailers Association, Roy Morgan and Salesforce found “retailers expect a $64bn bonanza this holiday season as consumers brush aside higher living costs and rising interest rates to deliver a forecast three per cent lift in spending.” Paul Zahra, CEO of the ARA says the high saving ratio and the high cost of travel are helping his members. “All of a sudden that annual European holiday becomes a trip to the Gold Coast and they are spending that money locally,” he said.

5. Telstra shareholders brace for big pay day
The SMH reports that: “At an extraordinary general meeting following Telstra’s annual meeting on Tuesday, the shareholders overwhelmingly endorsed the plan to create a new holding company with three fully owned discrete subsidiaries and one majority-owned entity.” The story is complex but the bottom line is that the old, staid Telstra is set to emerge as a modern, money-making machine that should be a big boost for its share price.