1. Top US banking CEO sees recession ahead
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that a “very, very serious” mix of headwinds was likely to tip both the U.S. and global economy into recession by the middle of next year. He says the US economy is doing well now but he can’t ignore the future. He’s worried about inflation, interest rates, the actions of central banks tightening the money supply and the Ukraine war. While he’s right to be worried, Jamie has made big calls before and he’s not always right. He and JPM backed WeWork’s Adam Neumann and that was a bad play.

2. Power costs are set to soar next year
The AFR says “retail electricity prices could soar by at least 35% in 2023 due to the unprecedented cost of wholesale energy, as the system grapples with the transition to clean energy amid a global supply crisis, power company bosses have told The Australian Financial Review’s Energy & Climate Summit. “Next year, using the current market prices, tariffs are going up a minimum 35 per cent,” Alinta Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery told the conference, but Origin Energy and Energy Australia disagreed. An end to the Ukraine war could be a blessing not only for the people of Ukraine but also Aussie consumers with already big power bills.

3. Why is the Aussie dollar 63 US cents?
There are two big reasons why our dollar is 63 US cents. First, as the AFR reported: “The currency dropped to its lowest in 2½ years on renewed growth worries as geopolitical tensions added to nervousness about the global economy.” And second, the US central bank interest rate rises are leaving our rate rises behind because our inflation rate is lower. Our currency is determined by export prices, which would fall in a global recession and our interest rates compared to other countries.

4. Auction clearance rates on the rise! How come?
The SMH says “the auction clearance rate has edged higher for two months in a row as home sellers reduce their price expectations to meet those of cautious buyers.” Across capital cities, September’s clearance rate reached 58.9% on Domain figures, up from 52.9% the previous month and its trough of 49.6% in July. Experts are saying they expect prices to keep falling but this clearance rate suggests as prices fall, more buyers get keener to buy. Only a serious recession will drive national prices down 25-30%, as some forecasters have predicted.

5. Sex worker declared a non-employee
The Australian reports that “the Fair Work Commission has thrown out a Melbourne sex worker’s unfair dismissal claim against the Top of The Town brothel, after finding she was an independent contractor, not an employee.” The brothel owner argued that Lucy Helft was never an employee but was a contractor and the Commission agreed. This decision could have wider ramifications on other contractors who want to be treated like an employee