1. Interest rate rise before the election?
A bigger-than-expected inflation jump has forced the Reserve Bank to consider our first interest rate rise since 2010 before the May 21 election. The inflation rate surged by 5.1% in the year to March, when only 4.6% was expected, which has led some economists to predict the RBA will raise rates before the election.

EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy says the RBA would lose credibility if it doesn’t hike next Tuesday. A rate rise during an election campaign last happened in 2007 and John Howard lost that election and his own seat.

2. Labor to double down on AUKUS deal
Labor is seeking to build upon the AUKUS deal with the UK and US, as it pertains to other defence projects outside of submarines such as cyber capabilities, AI, quantum technologies and more. “Labor’s proposed new body – to be called the Advanced Strategic Research Agency (ASRA) – is expected to have $1.2bn in funding over 10 years and will be housed within the defence portfolio. Labor’s plan includes transitioning the existing Defence Innovation Hub into the independent agency over time, with a focus on Aukus priorities,” the Guardian reports.

3. House prices predicted to fall by 10%
The expectation of an earlier-than-expected interest rate rise has property experts tipping a deeper fall in house prices. AMP Capital’s economist Shane Oliver says rates should rise by 0.4% next week and this rise and the ones that follow over the year will take house prices down by 10% by the end of 2023, with Sydney and Melbourne expected to lead the slide down.

4. Facebook (Meta) shares see resurgence following quarterly earnings
Meta’s earnings per share for the first quarter of $2.72 topped analysts’ estimates of $2.56, helping its stock rally 19% after the bell on Wednesday. The company’s revenue came in below expectations, as did its forecast for the second quarter. Yet despite the comeback on the share market, as of Wednesday’s close, the stock was down almost 50% for the year.

5. Shares expected to rise today
After three days of big losses for the stock market with China's lockdowns and Ukraine war dramas to blame, shares are expected to rise today. In the past three trading days, our stock market has lost over 4% but positive leads from European markets and Wall Street overnight, along with the expectation that interest rates will rise next week, have been seen as a plus for stocks. Higher inflation means many companies are raising prices and that can be good for company profits and stock prices. That said, if there are too many interest rate rises, stocks would fall big time. ASX futures were up 52 points or 0.7% to 7285 near 7am AEST, with the AUD +0.03% to 71.25 US cents. 2-year yield: US +0.11% (2.59%) Australia +0.03% (2.35%). 10-year yield: US +0.11% (2.83%) Australia -0.05% (3.05%).