1. Russian invasion underway, according to announcement of US sanctions
US President Joe Biden has introduced sanctions effective immediately on Russia’s sale of sovereign debt, responding to the perceived commencement of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. “He’s setting up a rationale to take more territory by force,” Biden said Tuesday at the White House. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” The ramp up in sanctions and fear of Russian invasion follows Putin’s recognition of two eastern provinces of Ukraine that are self-proclaimed separatist republics as independent. Biden said he’s imposing “comprehensive” sanctions on sovereign debt. “That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing,” he said. “It can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either.”

2. Australia no longer recognised by France as key Indo-Pacific partner
Some five months have passed since Australia reneged on its submarine contract with France in favour of the AUKUS deal, although the French are not done making an example of the perceived betrayal. In its amended document titled ‘France’s Indo-Pacific strategy’, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Paris states: “France will pursue bilateral cooperation with Australia on case-by-case basis”. Bloomberg notes that “France, a resident power in the Indo-Pacific, has said a degree of trust has been restored with the U.S. but not with Australia. Macron has accused Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison of deceiving him about his intentions, an allegation which Morrison’s government denied”.

3. China plays steady hand over Russia-Ukraine developments
At an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting, most diplomats condemned Russia’s escalating military deployments in Ukraine, however, China’s envoy was careful to make no mention of its trade partner. “All parties concerned must exercise restraint and avoid any action that may fuel tensions,” Ambassador Zhang Jun said late Monday as part of a six-sentence statement. “The current situation in Ukraine is a result of many complex factors,” he added. “China always makes its own position, according to the merits of the matter itself.” This stands in contrast to a meeting earlier this month between leaders Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, where the Chinese President backed Russia’s demand for binding security guarantees from the US and NATO regarding Ukraine. “China will have to walk a fine line in this crisis,” said Noah Barkin, an expert on Europe-China relations at U.S. research firm Rhodium Group. “It will want to avoid openly criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, while affirming its support for the principles of territorial integrity and non-interference. The hotter the conflict in Ukraine gets, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to walk this line.”

4. Billionaire-backed political party triggers calls to limit Australian election spending
The United Australia Party – run by one of Australia’s wealthiest individuals, Clive Palmer – has an $80 million war chest at its disposal for the upcoming federal election, and is reported it will outspend its 2019 campaign funding. A Guardian analysis of YouTube ads shows the party has spent an average of $472,625 each week for the past six weeks, totalling $2.83m on the platform alone in 2022. Its spend on ads across other mediums – including print, radio and digital – has been estimated at more than $31m since August. The Centre for Public Integrity chair, Anthony Whealy, a former NSW supreme court judge, said the lack of spending caps was, in a sense, the “root of all evil” in electoral financing.

5. ASX to fall as geopolitical tensions rise
ASX futures down 3 points or little changed to 7077 near 5.10am AEDT, with the AUD +0.5% to 72.18US cents. On Wall St: Dow -1.3% S&P 500 -0.9% Nasdaq -1.4%. 2-year yield: +0.06% (US 1.53%) Australia -0.01% (1.15%). 10-year yield: US -0.01% (1.92%) Australia -0.02% (2.19%).