There’s nothing more frustrating to be up for an argument and someone calls time on a potential big blow up. It’s worse when it happens on national TV and it involves a very important issue, such as the future of jobs, the survival (as well as the growth) of businesses in this country and what we do to help the 937,000 Australians without a job!

That was me last night when I was invited on the Credlin programme on Sky News to debate or agree about a number of issues with the legendary economics commentator, Terry McCrann. However the most important one was the claim by the Reserve Bank’s Deputy Governor, Guy DeBelle, that the recession ended in the September quarter.

Regrettably, just as Terry and I got started and ready for a big battle, the host Peta Credlin rang the bell on the show!

When Peta asked me if the recession was over, I said: “Yes, the technical recession is, or might be over but…” And before I could elaborate, Terry called out “No, no, no!” then Peta informed us that “we’re out of time!”

This is a really important story to have debated because the news that we were out of recession in September (if true) will be a great confidence booster, at a time when confidence is on the rise. If it’s wrong, the worrying question about our economic future rolls over to the December quarter, which I think is definitely going to be seen as three months where economic growth is positive.

I have to confess I was surprised when the RBA suggested that the September quarter was in all likelihood positive, because I thought the Victorian rerun of the lockdown measures in July (which we all nationally endured in March) was bound to extend the recession to a third quarter.

The March quarter was a 0.3% contraction in growth. The June quarter was a huge 7%. So I expected a smaller shrinkage of the economy but I’m happy to believe the economic estimators at our central bank. And the AFR’s Matthew Cranston reports that “all the big four banks expect the technical recession is now over, although their chief economists are still cautious about overestimating the recovery, with more than 930,000 people still unemployed”.

Note Matthew used the word “now”. That might mean the four big banks’ economics teams think we’re out of recession now (i.e. the December quarter) but I’m not sure what their view is about the September quarter.

And that’s the part that really made sleep hard last night in as much as I had a good argument to stick it to my old mate Terry, but was beaten by the bell!

Of course, me having a win over Terry (which he’d never believe is possible) is really of little consequence compared to the importance of getting the message out there that our economy is recovering faster than expected. It’s good news for confidence but it’s more important for making sure the economy grows even faster in 2021.

I don’t want growth for growth’s sake but stronger economic activity now, reinforced by a better-than-expected September quarter, will help power a healthier Christmas shopping period, resuscitate business investment and get job creation at a faster clip next year.

If you add a better-than-expected economy to borders opening and a vaccine showing up by year’s end, then we have the foundations for a great economy in 2021 that just might grow at the 4.25% predicted by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the Budget.

So what’s the case that we’re out of recession now? Try this run of data:

• ANZ Consumer Confidence has been up 9 out of 10 weeks and is at an 8-month high.
• Westpac Consumer Confidence lifted from 93.8 in September to a 27-month high of 105.
• ANZ job ads were up 7.8% in September. This means they’re up five months in a row!
• Housing finance commitments surged 12.5% in August.
• NAB Business Confidence rose from minus 8.2 points to minus 3.8 in September.
• NAB Business Conditions went from minus 6.2 to positive 0.4, which is an 8-month high!
• HIS Markit PMI Services Index rose from 49 to 50.8 in September.
• CommSec said this of the latest jobs report: “Stunning jobs data!”
• Employment was up 110,000 against a forecast of minus 35,000.
• Unemployment was down in August 7.5% to 6.8% against a forecast of minus 7.7%. September saw the jobless rate rise to 6.9% against a forecast of 7%.

At the worst of the Coronavirus lockdown, we were told unemployment could hit 10%. Meanwhile, a confidence number greater than 100 means optimists are outnumbering pessimists. And a PMI services number greater than 50 means the sector (the biggest employer in the country) is now expanding.

And I love this economic activity tracker from AMP Capital that shows how we’re rebounding out of the recession.

See how we were storming back, until July. And that’s when Victoria went back into lockdown. But see how the curve has turned positive again, even when our southern cousins were being kept indoors!

Terry’s “no, no, no..” could be “yes, yes, yes” for the September quarter, which was what I was going to say before we were beaten by the bell. But the December quarter is looking good, especially with Victoria now being released from its economic jail.

The only concern that I have now is the escalation in COVID-19 infection cases globally that could hurt the world economy’s rebound. We’re a big supplier of resources to the global economy and it underlines the importance of a vaccine ASAP!

We came out of the GFC as the only Western economy to avoid a recession. It looks like we’ll be among the best of breed when it comes to countries that have dealt with the health and economic challenges of this damn Coronavirus. And we shouldn’t be afraid to take this achievement to feed our confidence that 2021 will be a much better year for business and households than 2020.