Now comes the tricky bit. It’s linked to what I’ve always predicted would be the tricky bit — second wave infections. And while over the past couple of weeks the Yanks have some worrying outbreaks, we seemed to be heading in the right direction until we learnt Victoria has a problem with 19 new cases resulting in outdoor and indoor gatherings to be cut from 20 to 10.

Also plans to let pubs, cafes and restaurants pump up their numbers from 20 to 50 has been deferred for three weeks. The next three weeks will be vital for the assessment of how the virus is spreading and how our economy, the stock market and the property sector perform.

All this negative news comes as the investment bank UBS and its economist, George Tharenou took a look at last Friday’s retail numbers, which rose by a huge 16.3%. And he then did some recalculating to predict our economy will contract by only 4.2% in 2020.

This is huge! I know it’s only a number to normal people but normal people need to know that at one stage Treasury thought we’d contract by, wait for it, 10% and unemployment would go to 10% or over 1.2 million Aussies out of work!

This smaller contraction figure for the economy is great but if second wave problems escalate, then George will have to go back to his computer model and wait to see if his 4.2% guess will have to be pumped up.

Adding to the potential fear are stories that with the Spanish flu, the second-wave infections were larger than the first. And while that is historically accurate, anyone who thinks modern medicine is at the level of 1918 should think again. I’d also suggest you look at a TV programme called The Knick, which showed the level of infections in operating rooms were sometimes a greater danger to the patient than the actual condition that was being treated! Penicillin was only discovered in 1928. (By the way, The Knick is a great two season drama.)

And while Victoria is important as our second most populated state, the big watch for stock players will be the US and its rising infection rates. Last week the White House chief health advisor, Dr Anthony Fauci, said he was “frustrated” as Americans ignore health guidelines. “Clearly, we have not succeeded in getting the public as a whole uniformly to respond in a way that is a sound scientific, public health and medical situation,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said on CBS News Radio. “And it’s unfortunate. And it’s frustrating.” (CNBC)

And what happens out of Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma over the weekend could be a big news event for the US economy and Wall Street.

As I’ve already said, this is a really tricky time, with Bloomberg reporting last Friday that “US cases rose 1.6%, the biggest jump in three weeks, as more than 30,000 infections were reported for a second straight day, fuelling concern about a resurgence. Florida set another record for cases.”

But it’s not just a US-watch issue, with Spain agreeing to let Britons enter the country without a quarantine. The Brits are a huge tourism crowd for Spain’s economy so we’re seeing economic priorities win over cautious medical processes. Some 400,000 Britons have second homes in Spain and 18 million of the country’s 84 million tourists come from the UK.

I’ll be surprised if our stock market can go up today with the mounting cases against stock market positivity piling up. If we didn’t have the Victorian outbreak over the weekend and you added in the forecasted 4.2% contraction from UBS, then our market could have easily gone higher.

Reports from Domain say the property market is doing well with the low level of supply meeting a hoard of potential buyers right now, clearly driven by the same kind of optimism that drove those great retail numbers.

You have to pray that second-wave infections are managed not only for the economy, the stock market, property prices, jobs and business success but also for things more precious — human lives!

And given all these potential infection-related challenges for things economic and human, can anyone explain why our politicians don’t make us wear masks on public transport, in lifts, shopping precincts and public gatherings?

Anything worth doing is worth doing for money and lives!