Will Peter Dutton become the consumer's champion and PM one day?

Peter Switzer
18 May 2023

Here’s a question I never thought I’d ask: Could Peter Dutton become the champion of the Aussie consumer and one day become a surprise PM? I reckon he’s got a job ahead of him, as many see him as a seat-warmer for someone like Opposition Treasurer Angus Taylor some time in the future. But for now, Dutton has the gig and is looking to our hip pockets to gain some voter love.

The AFR headlines Pete’s latest attack on Albo and Dr Jim Chalmers, declaring the Government is hitting the gas industry with a “hammer of taxation.” And like the old Trini Lopez song, If I Had a Hammer, the Opposition leader will hammer it in the morning and the evening, and all over this land.

Like the song, he’s going to hammer it about the danger and he will hammer it as a warning that Labor is not only hammering the gas industry but our hip pockets, as inflation might not fall under Labor.

On gas, he could oppose the Budget measure of a $2.4 billion increase in the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax, which does nothing for lower prices.

However, Pete has a problem because in trying to win us over by being the consumers’ champion, he has to play to the gas and energy bosses, who are being slugged by Labor.

The AFR’s Phil Coorey has shown us what Pete is promising: “Citing Ronald Reagan’s 1981 promise to “decontrol the price of domestic oil”, Mr Dutton will tell the sector that, if elected, he will remove any lingering price caps on gas as well other regulations, including the mandatory code of conduct that will enable the government to mandate that gas be sold at a “reasonable price”.

The energy bosses would love this but Labor will simply say this is pro-inflationary.

Pete makes the good point that the industry is heavily taxed, paying a 40% tax rate on offshore oil and gas projects, which we consumers feel at the bowser. But given the state of the Budget, he can’t be promising believable big tax gifts to the energy industry, right now.

The Coalition leader is set to portray Labor’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act as something that will add to the costs of everything we buy. And given this week we learnt that Dr Jim is not fighting against pay rises for minimum wage workers, TWU unionists and public servants, while his Budget was assessed by average Aussies as pro-inflationary, it goes give Peter Dutton a chance of becoming more popular.

The country’s voters are green-leaning nowadays and this is a big reason the Coalition was shown the door at the last election. But inflation and its driving force on interest rates will become a big election issue if rates don’t come down to reasonable levels by around May 2025, when we go to the polls again.

If Dr Jim and Dr Phil make a mess of inflation extermination, they could give Pete a chance of being PM. But if Labor is really on the nose, the Coalition could do what they’ve done before and find a last minute more sellable alternative to Pete.

Watch the rise and rise of Angus Taylor if inflation and interest rates stay on the high side.

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