Here’s the big hip pocket question for those with a home loan: “Is the Reserve Bank softening us up for an earlier-than-expected interest rate rise?”

If that happens in June, as some economists are tipping, this will be the first interest rate rise from the RBA since, wait for it, November 2010!

The Australian’s Tom Dusevic, an experienced finance scribe, thinks the answer is ‘yes’ following the release of the minutes from the RBA’s board meeting on April 5.

This comes as the band of bank economists who star in the media have recently changed their views that the first rate rise would be in June rather than the August guess they had earlier this year.

RBA Governor, Dr Phil Lowe, cannot brief people about what the Big Bank might do but there has always been the belief that hints are thrown out to help massage the public’s readiness for an important move by the central bank.

Shock changes in interest rate policy could spook stock markets, business investors and job-creators, so the RBA would prefer to prepare us for something that looks like a change of policy. And this story from Tom could be exactly what the doctor has ordered.

If this hint of an early rate rise, possibly and probably in June, is right, I hope it becomes a case that a stitch/rate rise in time saves nine!

In actual case, the most aggressive rate rise calls out there are eight hikes in a year but if the RBA moves early before inflation really kicks up (like it is in the US), then we might end up with three or four rises in a year instead.

This was the view of Tim Toohey, the former local Goldman Sachs chief economist now at Yarra Capital, who thinks three rises will be more likely over the upcoming year.

He’s bound to be right if the Ukraine war ends ASAP and China gets out of lockdowns ASAP because both will help reduce inflation and take pressure off central banks to raise rates too quickly and impose too many rises as well.

Tom has pointed out how the minutes have pointed to rising inflation and wages and how the RBA wanted to see underlying inflation in the 2-3% band before hiking rates.

Next week on April 27 we get the next Consumer Price Index reading and the CBA thinks the headline rate will be 4.3%, but all eyes will be on the underlying rate.

If it’s in that 2-3% band, we will see a lot of speculation about the RBA raising rates just after the May election at the June meeting.

At the moment, bank economists are tipping four or five rises over the next year, but if inflation can surprise on the low side later this year, we might see less.

Pray for Ukraine and China if you want fewer rate rises!