Wall Street took a knock overnight, with the Dow Jones finishing 224 points lower. Our own market’s tipped to open about 24 points down, and the Aussie dollar is nudging 65.2 US cents. On the surface, that’s not a great way to start the day, but for me, days like this are when I start sharpening my pencil.
The big story out of the US right now is Donald Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on chipmakers from countries outside America. That’s given US chip stocks a short-term sugar hit, but the optimism didn’t last. The reality is no one quite knows what the fallout will be. And the market hates uncertainty. In two or three months, the data will start showing whether these tariffs are a speed bump or a brick wall.
Investor sentiment has already taken a hit. The American Association of Individual Investors (a bellwether for retail mood) has seen a 10 percentage point drop in optimism towards stocks. Now, here’s the interesting bit: professional investors often call this survey a contrarian indicator. When the retail crowd gets gloomy, the big money starts getting interested.
That’s exactly why I’m on “dip watch” right now. Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler in the US, has just given the thumbs up to stocks. His thinking is simple, plenty of people have been sitting on the sidelines, missing the market’s recent rises. Every time we get a sell-off, those buyers step in.
I’ll be honest, I’m one of them. If we see a decent pullback over the next couple of months, I’ll be looking to buy. History is on our side here: August and September are usually weaker months for equities, but the December quarter tends to deliver strong gains. And looking out to 2026, I still believe the overall direction for stocks is up.
That doesn’t mean it’s a free pass. Trump’s tariff talk is the wildcard. If he overplays his hand with China, the fallout could be bigger than the market’s currently pricing in. But if cooler heads prevail and we simply see a bout of volatility, that’s the kind of environment where patient, disciplined investors can pick up quality companies at better prices.
So, am I ready to buy the dip? You bet. The question is whether the market’s going to give us one worth buying. Keep your eyes open: opportunity doesn’t send you a calendar invite.