19 April 2024
1300 794 893
AAP Image/Lukas Coch

“Whatever it takes” should be the PMs war cry

Peter Switzer
16 June 2020

I had a dream but it wasn’t as inspiring as Dr Martin Luther King’s legendary vision that “one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed” and so on. No, my dream was that I’d be having to face another stock market slide, thanks to an infection in Beijing.

One fund manager I know, who’s surprised how much the stock market has recovered, made the observation that: “If Beijing is fessing up to one Coronavirus infection, well it’s probably a 1,000!”

This kind of thinking saw our stock market give up 128 points on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (or 2%) and Europe carried on the fear, with stock markets there down overnight.

So it was with trepidation, after having a “buddy, can you spare a dime?” dream that I rolled over and checked out the Dow on my iPhone beside my bed. And boy, was I happy when I saw it was green on the screen! Those optimistic Yanks couldn’t give into second-wave spooking but they were helped by a very obliging Federal Reserve — the most important central bank in the world.

Its boss, Jerome Powell, is doing a Mario Draghi (the old European Central Bank boss), who took over the job in 2011 with the war cry “whatever it takes”. Incidentally, this was the title of the book that Graeme Richardson (Richo) penned on being the fix-it guy for the Hawke-Keating era, when Labor ran the country between 1983 and 1996.

Led by Jerome Powell, the Fed cleverly turned early negativity around on Wall Street by announcing the central bank would buy corporate bonds. This is saying that the Fed believes in these companies. It reminds me of a Margaret Thatcher observation that “credit is man’s enduring confidence in his fellow man.” (I can’t find the actual quote but this is my best recollection of a funny but ‘oh so apt’ take on what banks do — they trust us to pay our loans back.)

This leads me to two stories in today’s press that scream out loud that Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg have to do a Richo or a Draghi or a Powell and sign up for a “whatever it takes” commitment.

The AFR says the PM is telling us that “We can’t save everyone…” That’s obviously true. Some businesses and jobs will go because of the virus-related policies but Scott and Josh can’t be too aggressive in killing off stimulus in September, when JobKeeper is expected to be wound up and JobSeeker goes back to $40 a day.

In Parliament, Labor is arguing JobKeeper should be extended and JobSeeker should pay more.

It’s tempting to be dismissive of Labor and its ordinary history with budget deficits and debt, but these guys spent up big in the GFC and we avoided a recession (the only Western economy to do so) and unemployment didn’t go over 6%!

In recessions when the global economy is challenged, you throw out the responsible money manager script and you throw money at consumers and business to get confidence up.

That’s why the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has risen nine out of the past 10 weeks. The Government’s JobKeeper spending and the reopening of the economy is bringing back spending and even home-buying, with auction clearance rates in Sydney over 70% last weekend.

Scott and Josh are trying to warn us that you can’t expect the old normal to come back after a pandemic pummelling of the economy. But they can’t adopt tightwad-Treasury tactics too early or the economy will not rebound into late 2020 and 2021.

Another story in the AFR from respected writer Karen Maley explained how one in five loan deferral borrowers are in “strife”. Home loan deferrals went to 480,727 customers as the Coronavirus smashed the economy but about 96,000 could be struggling to get back to paying their right amount any time soon.

Sensibly, the banks are trying to keep these ‘repayment-sick’ customers on loan life support, so those on higher rate loans are being asked to transition to lower rates. Anyone finding it a struggle on relatively high rates should either twist the arm of their banker or talk to a few mortgage brokers.

Josh and Scott have to keep the banks inside the tent. This means being considerate until the economy is on a strong footing and second-wave infection talk is dissipating or at least under control.

Clearly, there has to be a JobKeeper war chest, following the revelation that only 3 million asked for it when Treasury was expecting 6.5 million to put their hands up. A spend that was expected to be $130 billion shrunk by $60 billion. That was luckiest break and best mistake ever for a Treasurer who’ll be ultimately tested on how quickly we grow next year and how fast the unemployment rate falls.

People in travel, those who own CBD cafes and all the businesses and shops that are struggling because big public companies are scared to resume their seats in their office towers, will need to be helped.

One tactic Scott and Josh might think about is telling these big end of town businesses to stop being wimps and get their teams back to work in the CBDs of Australia before we create a wimps recession.

If it means insisting that we have to wear masks on public transport, in shopping precincts, in lifts, at protests at the footie and even in the workplace for a couple of months, then because people’s jobs and businesses are very important to the people concerned and to the economy generally, someone has to do “whatever it takes” to get us back to normal — and even a new normal — ASAP.

That’s a job for Scott and Josh. Their future electoral prospects hang on what they decide to do for the economy for the rest of this year.

I hope they get it right and pray that second-wave worries are manageable because I don’t want my money-world nightmares to become a reality!

Comments
Get the latest financial, business, and political expert commentary delivered to your inbox.

When you sign up, we will never give away or sell or barter or trade your email address.

And you can unsubscribe at any time!
Subscribe
1300 794 893
© 2006-2021 Switzer. All Rights Reserved. Australian Financial Services Licence Number 286531. 
shopping-cartphoneenvelopedollargraduation-cap linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram