For anyone in debt with a big home loan or hoping to sell a house, the best read in town is something few normal people ever read. It’s called the RBA Board Minutes, and this one is an intriguing read that pretty well tells us that next Wednesday could be D-day, when the battle with Dr Phil Lowe and his board turns in favour of those repaying home loans!

Wednesday the 28^th of June brings the next Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the number is better than expected, it will be good news for anyone worrying about their monthly repayments. Of course, there’ll be no rate cut but there could be no rate rise in July. And if the data keeps pointing to the fact that the RBA’s previous 12 rises are starting to work, then we could be at the top of the interest rate cycle.

The next step then would be rate cuts, but, once again, economic data will determine that. If we see signs of a recession looming, we could see lower rates before Christmas.

So, what’s in those RBA minutes that makes me think that at least a pause in rate rises is possible?

Well, it looks like the June hike was a close call! This is how CommSec’s Craig James interpreted the minutes: “The Minutes today indicate that the decision to raise the cash rate by 25bp in June was a close one, but inflation risks shifting to the upside ultimately prompted the RBA to hike the cash rate in June. Home prices rising, stabilising home lending, the minimum wage decision and implicit indexation to high rates of inflation were also causes for concern”.

The decision about rates will get down to the economic data drops, and here are the biggies you might want to hold your breath for ahead of the RBA’s next rate decision on July 4:

1. May CPI on June 28 — next Wednesday.
2. May retail trade on June 29.
3. Home price data on July 3.

Right now, the CBA economics team thinks the July cash rate decision is 50/50. They blame the stronger-than-expected May jobs report, when the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6% and employment surged by 76,000 over the month, if you can trust these figures.

I say that because one month’s numbers are not reliable. Trends are more trustworthy. If inflation falls on June 28, retail looks weaker on the 29^th and house prices aren’t screaming that homebuyers are ignoring Dr Phil’s rate rises, then July could bring a pause. And if these signs of a weakening economy continue in coming months, then the RBA board might go back to writing boring board minutes about no change in the cash rate.

Of course, if their previous work (i.e., 12 rate-rises) really starts to hurt the economy, then those minutes might make interesting reading around why they’ve started to cut, but that’s some time off yet.