With the Reserve Bank taking a punt on an interest rate cut, the questions about our economic and investing future (which includes your super returns) have come into sharp focus. Today the job numbers for the January employment report will add a lot more to what’s likely to happen in the near future for stocks, interest rates and when we go to the polls in the looming Federal election.

Right now, no one expects another rate cut on April Fool’s Day, when the RBA next meets. Meanwhile, May is seen as a 50% chance by money markets but if unemployment remains at 4%, where it is now, then you can forget rate cuts until the jobless story looks more worrying.

For the mortgagees out there praying for more cuts, the CBA economics team is still backing four cuts this year, taking the cash rate to 3.35%. And you can bet your bottom dollar that whoever’s in power, they’ll be forcing the banks to pass on the cuts in full.

However, understand this, if the economy doesn’t produce negative economic growth on March 5 or at least a number under the 0.8% annual figure we saw in the September quarter, then the RBA won’t be in a hurry to cut again any time soon.

That said, if we see a negative reading for growth and that unemployment is on the rise, then the CBA’s call of four cuts could be on the money. By the way, those looking at the history of RBA cuts that have brought two or three cuts in a row, you must understand that these kinds of cuts have come when the economy was shrinking fast, unlike what’s happening now.

Working against a lot of cuts this year was the recent Leading Index statistic, which tries to ‘guess’ if the economy is going up or down. This is what Westpac’s Matt Hassan reported on this indicator: “The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, lifted to 0.58% in January from 0.24% in December.”

For the non-economist, this says the economy might be on the improve. But I have to say that this index isn’t always spot on, so I’m keen to see the next National Accounts figures that come out on March 5 and cover the December quarter and the year to December.

Those praying for more rate cuts won’t want to see better-than-expected jobs and growth numbers, and they need to see the next CPI reading confirm that core inflation is definitely falling.

That important data drop day is February 26 when we see the January monthly inflation numbers. However, this will be trumped by the quarterly result on April 30. This is going to be the ‘make it or break it’ statistic determining whether the RBA cuts in May. If the core inflation figure is 3% or less and growth is low and the unemployment rate is rising, then you can bank on a second rate cut.

Stock market wise, we’ve seen this week that there is a rotation starting, with fund managers and investors moving out of banks and other star performing top 20 companies to look at those companies that might gain from lower interest rates.

It's why the CBA has lost 3.73% over the past week, while the likes of Tyro has seen its share price rise 5.49%. This is a company that will benefit from lower interest rates and eventually people spending more as rates continue to fall.

Right now, the smarties who are full-time stock market players will be looking for companies that suffered as 13 rate rises happened. Now these stocks could be share price gainers because their interest costs will be falling, and their sales will be increasing. This spells more profits and higher share prices.

All this is why I think stocks will go up this year, but we have to be mindful of what President Trump’s tariffs could do to hurt stocks. But if he can get peace in Ukraine, that would be a plus for global market confidence.

Stock markets are always challenging but remember this: they tend to rise seven out of 10 years, and they tend to be positive when interest rates are falling.

Finally, for those pondering the politics of all these upcoming data dramas for the Government, given there are a lot of statistics that could make or break the positivity that this first rate cut has delivered, I’d be going to the polls ASAP, before something out of the Australian Bureau of Statistics delivers the numbers the Prime Minister definitely doesn’t want to see.