It’s day one of a Trump-affected world and most Australians will get richer today with the stock market set to surge, which will be great for our superannuation! As I write, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up a huge 1400 points (or 3.4%), and our market is bound to gain from this tailwind from an excited Wall Street.

Well, that’s what should happen. The news that has surprised me is that the SPI futures that tells you what’s bound to happen on our stock market at the opening bell said we will be unchanged! Correction, we now could be up 3 points but that could go higher by the time the Yanks hear the closing bell at 8am our time and 4pm in the Big Apple.

Of course, our market had a big day yesterday as Hannah Hammoud correctly reported with this:

“The Australian share market has ended the day on a high on the back of an anticipated win for Donald Trump in the US presidential race, offering a taste of how Wall Street is likely to react to the outcome of the race for the White House.

“The S&P/ASX 200 rose 67.7 points (or 0.8%) to 8199.50, to close Wednesday’s session in the green as all eyes turn towards the outcome of the US election.”

Right now, big players of financial markets will be confused about how to ‘play’ Trump, with his preference for lower taxes a plus. However, his tariff plans could not only hurt US companies such as Apple, they’d also be inflationary. That won’t sit well with the average American who voted for the guy who wants to “Make America Great Again!”

Surveys have shown why Kamala Harris found it difficult to win the election was that many voters link the Democrats to the high cost of living that came with the post-Covid high inflation era, which then brought 11 interest rate rises.

This could be an ominous omen for the Albanese Government, especially with the RBA holding out on interest rate cuts. Across the ditch in New Zealand, Jacinta Ardern saw the writing on the wall and left it to her colleague Chris Hipkins to cop the election loss.

Marketwise, our dollar has fallen and there could be concerns that the Trump win means:

1. A China trade war which isn’t good for Australia.
2. Higher global inflation.
3. Higher interest rates.
4. Slower growth because we’re an economy that sells exports to the world.

But this is all speculation, albeit negative speculation. That’s why our market could be nervous and undecided about what Trump will mean for us.

Over time, the Trump gains for US stocks will help our market, despite all the threats the new president brings to us and our trading partners. On that subject, learned academics of US politics say a US president can only raise tariffs independent of Congress if there’s a security issue.

Trump did use that argument for the tariffs he introduced in 2018, so he could try that on again. It’s this kind of uncertainty that could put a brake on stock price rises in the short term.

History isn’t always a great guide, but Donald Trump’s backstory says he likes to be loved by Wall Street and when stock market indexes head higher he sees that as an endorsement of his work.

My best guess is that once the real world now accepts it could be some time before tariffs happen and inflation spikes, it means it makes sense to buy into this Trump rally until the bad news actually shows up.

That said, this spectacular Trump victory makes my life harder as a commentator, market analyst and financial adviser. Right now, I’m happy that my clients have a big exposure to the US stock market!

By the way, bitcoin is up 10% to $US75,864 on the win, as Trump is a fan pledging to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet!” And how did Trump media shares do? Try a 16% surge!

Only in America could a TV star pull off one of the greatest political coups in history without using a revolutionary army!