19 April 2024
1300 794 893

We’re getting richer as our stock market surges

Peter Switzer
25 November 2020

The world of news is headlining that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken through the 30,000 level for the first time ever and President Donald Trump is claiming responsibly for this milestone. Our recent local stock market story is actually better than the irrepressible Yanks. And I’m tipping it could be that way for some time. And we need it to be because we have underperformed relative to the Yanks since the GFC.

Since late February 2009, when the stock market started to rebound out of the GFC crash, we’re up around 110% but the US market is up, wait for it, 370%!

There are lots of reasons to explain the big difference but the US explosive market was in part a T&T story — Tech stocks and Trump tax cuts powering share prices to giddy heights. It was the timeframe when we learnt about something called FAANG stocks, which lumped the huge market surges — Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet).

In 2018, these stocks were responsible for nearly 40% of the S&P 500’s rise from the February lows. Over that time, other tech stocks have helped US stocks spike higher and faster, driven by their appropriateness to the ‘stay at home’ period that followed after the Coronavirus struck.

Imagine if Tesla was in the S&P 500! It only goes into the S&P 500 in December at no.10, which makes many of us wonder why it has taken so long to get a guernsey in the index.

But the big story overnight was the fact that it was the first time ever that the Dow has broken through the 30,000-level. The S&P 500 is also hitting record highs but our month of November has actually been better than US stock markets. And there are lots of reasons to believe this can continue.

On Monday on my YouTube Switzer Investing TV programme, we pointed out that November is the biggest ever monthly rise for the ASX 200 Index and the biggest  for the All Ords since 1988! And we went even higher yesterday and should see it again today with the lead from Wall Street.

Why is this happening? And how does it continue, which is my base case, albeit at a slower pace, given the unbelievable surge in November?

On the why question, my label for this rally says it all.

I call it the “Vaccine-RBA-Frydenberg rally” and it will not only deliver better share prices but will drive our super returns for the second half of 2020 to one of the best ever.

Compounding on all this positivity that will help our stock market challenge the US market, is our superior success in fighting the virus and second-wave infections. This isn’t just a health dividend. It’s also delivering a huge economic and wealth pay-off, which has become crystal clearly lately with the borders of Victoria now open and Queensland coming to the party on December 1.

It’s one big positivity equation that will drive economic growth, create jobs, encourage investment, drive up company prices and power up stock prices.

And we’re set to outperform our US cousins for the following reasons:

• we’re fighting the virus better.

• US tech stocks are likely to rise at a slower rate as the reopening of the economy helps stocks like banks, energy businesses, airlines and travel businesses.

• our stimulus is bigger than the Yanks and it’s in place doing its work.

And the cherry on top is this recent great vaccine news, which looks like it will hit to the boundary all those negative, nervous Nellies out there who have been trying to pour cold water on anything that was akin to good news on our battles with the virus and the challenge to get the economy going.

The world was struck down by a shocking virus that led to unthinkable closure of economies and the biggest recessions since the Great Depression. However, those who have underestimated the potential of people to fight back and do the repair job, have not only been surprised by humanity’s resilience and adaptability, they’ve lost money because they didn’t buy quality businesses when the market overreacted and sold off. This unforgettable chapter in human history might have taught some permanently pessimistic people that it doesn’t pay to be anti-optimism!

Comments
Get the latest financial, business, and political expert commentary delivered to your inbox.

When you sign up, we will never give away or sell or barter or trade your email address.

And you can unsubscribe at any time!
Subscribe
1300 794 893
© 2006-2021 Switzer. All Rights Reserved. Australian Financial Services Licence Number 286531. 
shopping-cartphoneenvelopedollargraduation-cap linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram