Anyone wanting a Santa Claus rally to top off the year of investing or keep their super growing, needs to see the US deliver market-helping data. Overnight, Wall Street got to pour over delayed job numbers because of President Trump’s government shutdown, and the story the data told was of a slower-than-expected US economy.
This is bound to increase Trump’s disdain for Fed chief Jerome Powell, who has resisted cutting interest rates as much as his President has been calling for.
The news didn’t help US stocks at least initially, with all major market indexes down, which would surprise some share playing experts as the numbers suggest the Yanks could get more rate cuts than have been expected. And we know Wall Street loves rate-cut news, provided it’s not saying that a recession threatens.

Stock markets can behave oddly. Often the first reaction to new economic data or profit news and decisions, as well as statements from people like central bank bosses, can be countered by completely opposite follow up reactions by influential investors. This can turn a sell-off into a rally. That’s what I’m wondering might be afoot for US stocks and then our market.
For the record, our SPI futures, which tells us how our stock market will open, is tipped to be down only 12 points at the start, which says the US job news wasn’t a terrible red flag to big share players. So, let’s look at those labour market stats below:
1. November’s report showed an increase of 64,000 jobs.
2. Economists only expected 45,000.
3. However, the October number was a loss of 105,000 jobs and unemployment rose to 4.6%.
4. Economists expected a 4.5%.
5. In September, the jobless rate was 4.4%, so the US economy is slowing faster than economists expected.

This is how US-based Gina Bolvin, president at Bolvin Wealth Management Group, saw the figures:

“Today’s data paints a picture of an economy catching its breath. Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but not sprinting This combination gives the Fed more freedom to pivot without panic — and gives investors a reason to lean into quality, income, and long-term themes rather than short-term noise.”

Interestingly, the October result by itself screams the Fed should cut rates again in January, following the cut last week. However, the November number was positive. And right now, the odds of a Fed rate cut in January didn’t change and is still at only 24%.
Right now, Wall Street is worried about the big AI investments by huge US tech companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, etc, which has created a bubble. Concerns here are split. Meanwhile there are now worries about a slowing US economy, whether the Fed has cut rates enough and will they get their cuts right to make sure the US doesn’t go into a recession?
By the way, market reactions to date don’t indicate that the smarties on Wall Street are really worried about a recession. But as you can see, there’s a lot of doubt about and that always takes the wind out of stock players’ sails.
And don’t forget the market is worried about what stocks will do if the Supreme Court rules Donald Trump’s beloved tariffs illegal! And if the court rules that tariff money collected must be paid back!
If the Court says ‘no’ to the Trump tariffs, some stocks will fall, while others will rise. But the very uncertainty of all the above explains why the rally in stocks, which started in earnest in October 2023 when inflation started to wane, is now losing ground.
Market eyes now are turning to Thursday’s CPI in the US, which will affect our Friday share trading. If the news is positive, I expect stocks to rise.
For the purists, a Santa Claus rally means the key stock index — the S&P 500 — rises over the last five trading days of this year and the first two trading days of January 2026. So, the Thursday in New York to Friday January 2 will be run where we hope Santa can deliver some stock market gifts for all of us.
If the core inflation reading on Thursday is lower than 2.9%, it will make a January rate cut more doable. And Wall Street is bound to like that.