Wall Street spiked higher on the words of the legendary song by The Cars titled Let The Good Times Roll, with the human curveball Donald Trump’s declaration that an Israel-Iran truce is a goer. While the US President can be known for ‘gilding the lily’ for pure deal-making reasons, big investors in the Big Apple and beyond have bought this very good news.
Let’s pray that Donald is on the money. If he is, our investments and super will be in the money too.
The Dow Jones finished up 507 points (or 1.19%), the S&P 500 went up 1.11%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added a big 1.43% (or 281.56 points). And our market will open in the green and is bound for a good day at the office.
But more importantly, for those who pay scant regard for what goes on in the ‘unreal’ (though very important) world of high finance, the headlines scream that “oil prices tanked”. That’s great news for future inflation and how many interest rate cuts lie ahead for the US, Australia and the global economy.
If this truce talk is more than talk and becomes a reality, then next year, which I thought could be a year to go more defensive and less exposed to stocks, could be another great one for shareholders. However, it’s crucial for stocks that this Trump truce has to be the truth. Furthermore, the Trump tariffs due to kick-off on July 9 must end up looking reasonable and manageable for the companies and countries hardest hit by these taxes on trade.
If the President pulls those two threats to stocks off, then the good times will roll, helped by lower interest rates and taxes in the US, along with Trump’s promised deregulation and the power of Artificial Intelligence. Together, these would create profit opportunities that will send stock prices higher.
If you need more proof of the ‘threat’ of good times on the horizon, just look at oil prices, which were down more than 6% overnight.
US-based Jon Brager, a portfolio manager at Palmer Square Capital Management, summed it up succinctly for CNBC: “The key event for the market was how quick and limited the US involvement was, as well as the ‘weak’ response from Iran, which was essentially a choreographed fireworks display for domestic consumption.
“So even if the ceasefire results in occasional flare ups, the market has decided this risk is now in the rearview mirror and the focus probably returns to tariffs and fiscal policy.”
Of course, the things driving this new round of optimism could turn on a dime (as the Yanks love to say), but that’s investing life under Donald J. Trump.
Sure, he could come up with something to spook stock markets. However, my positivity about that insult that says he can be a TACO guy is a plus not a negative for stocks. This Trump Always Chickens Out slight on Trump really means he talks and can act tough, as we saw with his bombing of Iran over the weekend. However, he is willing to back off to get a better deal.
And surely that’s a good thing. If this ‘deal’ kills Israel-Iran hostilities and the latter’s preoccupation with nuclear playthings, then I’m glad Trump is a TACO guy.
George Bernard Shaw once told us “Nothing is ever accomplished by a reasonable man”, a line suggesting that significant change often comes from those willing to push boundaries rather than conform to existing norms.
The quote from this Irish playwright and critic underlines that people like Donald Trump can be valuable, sometimes.