Treasurer Jim Chalmers has shocked business leaders and economists telling anyone, who is prepared to listen that 80% of new jobs are in the private sector, tagging it as a business-led recovery. He pitched this job market revelation as he painted a pretty picture of the economy, which he has overseen for near on three years.

The AFR reported that he told Business Council of Australia heavyweights that the jobless rate was a low 4%, the stock market was hovering around record highs, household wealth was up 25% over his time in the top money job for the Government, and inflation was on the way down.

And to be fair, a lot of this is right but there are those who will say it’s been a hard three years to get here!

He put all of this into a historical perspective saying the following: “I think we’re on the cusp of achieving something remarkable, together,” he told the BCA gathering at Parliament House this week. “You’d know and appreciate how unusual this is in historical terms and in contemporary global experience as well. Every other time we’ve gone through an inflation spike, it’s been followed by higher unemployment.”

This is pretty well true, but it’s fair to argue that the one-third of Australian households with mortgages have carried the pressure of bringing down inflation. Small businesses have also had to cope with high interest rates, cash-strapped customers, wage rises from a generous Government and era where the workplace has become a time bomb for employers.

And the work-from-home trend has been another issue for small business and their profitability.

Experts on worker compensation say employees are being encouraged by lawyers to go on stress leave and claim that they are victims of bullying if they think their job is at risk because of poor performamce. And this is at a time when the Government and business groups are calling for a boost in productivity.

On whose carried the can for this improving economy, the AFR says ABS figuring shows “employee households”– those whose principal source of income is wages – have experienced a 19.4 per cent increase in cost of living since Labor came to office in May 2022.”

Pensioners and self-funded retirees saw a 12% rise and that’s because they didn’t suffer 13 interest rate rises over that time.

One area that has surprised many was the Treasurer’s claim that four in every five of the 1.1 million jobs created over his time in charge happened in the private sector. And on first blush, the numbers look right, though deeper analysis paints a different picture.

“But economists and shadow treasurer Angus Taylor have argued a large share of the employment gains under Labor is still a result of government spending, pointing to the strong growth in jobs in the ‘non-market’ industries of public administration, education and healthcare,” the AFR’s John Kehoe and Michael Read have pointed out. “While these can often be private sector jobs as Dr Chalmers alluded, they are tied to government services and often influenced by taxpayer funding and policies.”

The ABS says 44% of the 1 million or so jobs created between May 2022 and November 2024, were in the non-market sector. That is, they might have private employers, like a childcare business, but if the taxpayer was not bankrolling the subsidies to parents to make childcare afforable, those workers would be on the dole queue.

On the other hand, some economists and business leaders would argue that the Government has spent so much, and kept interest rates too high for too long because of that spending, that this has crowded out the private sector from creating jobs.

Dr Chalmers has a few economic pluses to crow about, that look OK statistics-wise. However, in the real world there has been a fair bit of pain for big and small businesses with inflation persistently high and interest rates jacked up 13 times, while mortgage holders too have born a lot of pressure to help create some of the pretty pictures the Treasurer is happy to reveal.

Ultimately, the election result could hinge on whether there are sufficient voters who agree with Dr Chalmers’ portrayal of the Aussie economy.