We’re seeing sneak previews of what will eventually happen to stocks when central banks have had enough of inflicting interest rate pain on the mortgage holders of the world. Yep, it’s not just Aussie-designed torture for those who borrowed for homes and businesses, it’s going on in the US and across Europe. The EU’s central bank has just slammed borrowers with a 0.75% rise in rates.

If the market thinks the rises are near an end or someone like Dr Phil Lowe implies the big rate rises are nearly over or soon might even stop, then it leads to stock-buying.

Now I’m not saying stock-selling days are over for our market, but I am saying we’re seeing what will happen in spades when we think or we know that rate rises are done and dusted.

After weeks and recent days of sell-offs, Thursday brought a nice rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index of 119.7 points (or 1.77%) and you can thank two central bankers for this positive day on the market.

Giving us a positive lead, the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard, relented with her tough talk in a TV interview to say that policymakers, namely her and her colleagues at the Fed “will be data dependent and conscious of overdoing tightening”.

And then, nearly on cue, our own Dr Phil let this one loose at a speech in Sydney: “And we recognise that, all else equal, the case for a slower pace of increase in interest rates becomes stronger as the level of the cash rate rises."

There was also a strong hint that jumbo 0.5% interest rate rises could be unnecessary. That’s not to say the rate rise program is over but he made it clear that while more rate rises can’t be ruled out, “The Board is not on a pre-set path… [and] we are conscious that there are lags in the operation of monetary policy and that interest rates have increased very quickly”.

He made it clear that “how high interest rates need to go and how quickly we get there will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook for inflation and the labour market”. 

Both central bankers were telling the excessively negative economists and big market players that if inflation looks like it’s falling quicker than expected, then they will ‘back off’ with the rate rises.

So we’re all on data watch, as I’ve been saying for months. If that data says inflation is falling, stocks will take off. How do I know that?

Well, look at how markets have responded to these comments, just imagine how tech and growth stocks will spike if inflation is on the slide, rate rises are over and economies like the US and Australia avoid a recession and have a soft landing.

And yep, if my optimistic scenario comes to pass, tech stocks will lead the way. What we saw on Thursday with the likes of Tyro Payments up 27.9% and Megaport up 12.1%, will be remembered as a sneak preview you might regret ignoring.

By the way, that Tyro spike is on the back of a takeover offer from a consortium led by tech-focused investment firm Potentia Capital Management, along with  HarbourVest Partners, MLC Investments Limited, and The Construction and Building Unions Superannuation Fund (or Cbus).

This move tells you a whole lot of smarties like Tyro generally, and believe it is badly mispriced by the stock market, as a lot of companies are right now.

That said, that big comeback day for stocks still could be months in the making, or maybe not.