We now know that the Reserve Bank’s 13 interest rates have worked to slow down the economy. If they raise rates again, they should be tagged a team of nincompoops. I hope their training and knowledge of the history of the RBA’s mistakes on rate rises and cuts will mean there’ll be no more rate rises.

By the way, the 0.2% quarterly increase in economic growth, taking the yearly number to 1.5%, was for the 12 months to December. We’re now nearly at the end of the March quarter, where the economic readings are more negative, so there’s no reason for the RBA to even think about further rate rises.

Most borrowers have gone over the mortgage cliff now and are paying a lot more for their home loan repayments. People feeling the pinch are cutting back on spending and others are looking for solutions to meeting their debt obligations.

Last week I told you about my Sydney CBD sandwich shop owner who advertised for workers in November and got three replies, but two weeks ago received 80! And staff who never ask for pay rises asked for a consideration for a higher wage, which was unusual as he increased pay fairly regularly.

Yep, 13 rate rises are working and we’re seeing it, with the monthly inflation number for 12 months coming in at 3.4%, which was better than economists thought.

By the way, this says the economy is slowing faster than they thought so maybe the last rate rise from the RBA was excessive.

This is why I’m arguing that rate rises are over. The new question for quiz show lovers is: When will the RBA start cutting?

I reckon the Big Bank’s board of monetary types, who mostly haven’t had their skin in the game of business, will wait about three months. If the March quarter economic data is worse than Decembers, which was only a rise of 0.2%, then we should see the first cut by July at the latest. On the other hand, it could come sooner, depending on how bad the run of economic data ends up being.

The March quarter figures aren’t out until June 5, which is a Wednesday. So, the first chance for the RBA to cut after those numbers, which should be slower than December, will be the first Tuesday in July.

Of course, if the economy slide looks worse than expected, the RBA could move faster to cut, but we’d need to see the CPI readings well into the 2-3% band the RBA wants. We’re in the hands of the RBA. I still think we can dodge a recession and have a soft landing, but it will be a ‘touch and go’ thing if the RBA holds rates too high for too long.

To super and The Australian runs a story that our super funds have had a nice run, which was put this way: “Fuelled by a US-led tech surge, the latest boost to retirement nest eggs – the median balanced fund returned 1.8 per cent last month, according to new data from SuperRatings – brings the median financial-year-to-date return to 6.7 per cent. Funds are edging closer to double-digit gains four months out from the end of the financial year.”

And in the true tradition of the media, which says bad news sells better, we’re told that Rest Super’s chief investment officer Andrew Lill warns that we should expect a year to be “marked by slower growth and a dose of volatility”.

Slower growth and higher volatility don’t mean our super funds won’t grow. We could see ups and downs in stock prices, but it still could be on a rising trend. In fact, anyone worrying about interest rates should note this from Andrew Lill: “We continue to believe there’s considerable risk that markets are anticipating a speedy return to the low-inflation, low-cash-rate environment we experienced in the 2010s.”

Okay, Lill and his team at Rest think we could be wrong on lower inflation and falling interest rates, but he could be the one who’s wrong. The majority might be right and rate cuts could be coming and this historically helps stock prices and, in turn, helps super funds.

I expect a bit of a pullback in stock prices because of the big gains we’ve seen since October, which have made super funds and my returns for my financial planning clients look fantastic.

I’m telling my clients that I expect a good 2024 overall but 2025 could be tricky, as the first year of a new US President is often the worst for stocks in their four-year term. And the new top guy at the White House could be Donald Trump, who could start sticking it to China from day one.

The last time he put on a trade war, the market didn’t like it and he had to twist Jerome Powell’s arm to cut interest rates in 2019, which eventually helped share prices.

Provided the RBA and the US Federal Reserve get their rate cuts right, I’m expecting being long stocks in your super fund should deliver nice returns.

Despite the efforts of my colleagues in the media and the finance industry, don’t worry, be happy! By the way, The Australian story looked at what SuperRatings revealed about super returns, and this is what was reported: “Growth funds fared even better than balanced options in the month, with the median return coming in at 2.3 per cent for a 7.9 per cent gain over the year so far, the SuperRatings data showed.”