Sensibly, RBA boss Michele Bullock has poured cold water on all those interest rates hopeful historians who tipped we’d see another rate cut on April 1. Of course, April the first is the day famous for trickery and foolish stunts. It ‘ain’t’ going to happen and Treasurer Jim Chalmers and PM Anthony Albanese know that. So, what will be their political play on when they go to the polls?

The election experts say the Prime Minister has a few days to decide whether he goes early. If I was him, I’d want to see Thursday’s job numbers that might not only be crucial for the Government’s re-election hopes but could also impact Bullock’s credibility.

The AFR says this rate cut might be a negative for the Governor’s inflation fighting credentials. However, if unemployment rises from its current 4% level, it would be good for her credibility as an inflation fighter, and it should tell the PM to go early in case the jobless rate starts to defy gravity and head higher.

That wouldn’t be a great selling point for the Government, with the Coalition likely to say that your mortgage is now 0.25% cheaper but will you have a job to keep paying it? On that point, I don’t expect a big spike in the jobless rate, which is why Bullock said this with this rate cut decision: “Today’s decision does not imply that further rate cuts along the lines suggested by the market are coming. If we don’t get inflation down, interest rates won’t come down, and you’ll be stuck with inflation and high interest rates.”

The Governor is taking a punt that 13 rate rises have done the trick to keep inflation falling, and the 12 leftover rises will keep doing that job. And keep this in mind — the RBA’s history has shown it to be a bit of a hapless punter when it comes to rate rises and cuts.

History has shown the Bank hasn’t been good on timing cuts and rises, and, incidentally, economists and media experts have often gone along for the ride with the RBA, even when it looked like the central bank was, as Paul Keating has said, “Late to the party!”

I recall how I waged a campaign against the RBA on my old Sky Business TV show, when it kept rates too high for too long around 2011-12. I was aided and abetted by Dr John Hewson, who loved to lecture the RBA. And it’s noteworthy to recall that after the Bank caved in and started cutting, few commentators asked if the then-Governor was off with the pixies!

RBA bosses deserve respect, but they do need to be brought to book when they get it wrong on their million dollar plus salary.

By the way, at that time, the AFR’s money market guru, Chris Joye, who founded bond player Coolabah Capital, disagreed with me. We had epic debates on my TV show. However, later he publicly recognised I was right in calling for a cut and sticking it to the RBA.

This was a unique event because Joye is seldom wrong on his money-related predictions. He hardly ever admits he’s wrong because he has a history of being right!

Don’t get me wrong, timing monetary policy cuts and rises isn’t easy, but the RBA has been too conservative on many occasions and has underestimated the lag between rate rises and how long it takes to hit and hurt the economy.

Governor Bullock has been a senior public servant at the RBA for a long time and has seen some of her bosses make mistakes. She would recall that expert media commentators and economists have got it wrong in not sticking it to the Board of our central bank.

The team on the Board could be wrong but they are supported by a huge number of economists, who are trained to ‘guess’ what’s going on in the economy, not what the PM and Treasurer are saying to the Governor.

Economics is not a precise science and there’s always a bit of gut-feeling in the related policy decisions. I think Michele Bullock and her Board have got it right but only time will tell.