The protective walls of Fortress Australia keeping the Coronavirus out are being gradually lowered and the Morrison Government is set to let us travel overseas as of November 1. However, foreigners without exemptions won’t be allowed into the country for the time being.

Helping our exit for business or holiday reasons is the arrival of the international Covid-19 certificate. This proves your vaccination status and you’ll have to show it before boarding a plane.

All you need is a valid passport and proof of being fully vaccinated (which you get through a MyGov account or Medicare). This gives you a certificate that will be recognised internationally. All this is available as of tomorrow.

This process of identifying who’s vaccinated comes with a secure QR code to prove Covid-19 vaccination status to border authorities around the world.
The secure QR code (also known as a Visible Digital Seal) is protected against forgery.

“International travel to and from Sydney will resume for Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family members from November 1 with no quarantine requirements for those who are fully vaccinated,” writes Clare Armstrong of The Daily Telegraph. “Though international tourists will not be permitted to enter the country, Health Minister Greg Hunt has said a plan for quarantine-free travel with Singapore, including for international residents, was in ‘rapid development’.”

US travelling is phase one of the reopening of borders plan. Phase two lets international students and priority workers back into Australia. And phase three “will be for fully vaccinated international travellers, and that would include tourists,” Mr Hunt said.

This whole travel overseas situation is really fluid. As of tomorrow, the so-called “green lane” between Australia and New Zealand will be reopened. However, we can’t go to the North Island, which has had an outbreak of the virus, which to date hasn’t travelled to the South Island!

So what are the economic implications of this three-phase reopening?

First up, it’s a negative for economic growth because as tourists we have historically spent $60 billion a year overseas. The fact we’re getting out before others can come in isn’t a plus for growth.

Second, the fact that the three-phase process is so slow, with phase two bringing in international students is another break on economic growth.

Third, the local border closures pretty well make our selling of the country as a holiday destination for foreigners a harder-than-usual sell.

Fourth, the Morrison Government can’t afford any more lockdowns in 2022, with an election due by mid-year. Too many foreigners too soon could bring a Coronavirus curveball that might result in lockdowns.

Fifth, local interstate tourism will actually power a lot of economic growth and ScoMo will be praying that the 7% growth predicted by Bill Evans, Westpac’s chief economist, is on the money.

If the only abnormal aspect of life is the lack of overseas tourists here, it might not be a big issue for the general Aussie/voter. However, businesses dependent on foreign tourists and those local operations who need casual staff, which in the past was filled by young travellers, are going to suffer labour supply problems and wages are bound to rise.

This is just another aspect of the supply chain problems we’re hearing about in the US, the EU and the UK as the reopening of economies is pumping up demand and supply needs time to catch up.

This will breed inflation but economists think it will be temporary. In fact, the higher prices will force suppliers to ramp up supply ASAP to cash in on the post-virus opportunity to make money.

This will help normalcy return but I suspect it’s going to be late 2022 before that happens and it probably won't be until 2023 before overseas travel becomes easy and cheap again.

Anyone hoping to travel soon is in for a sticker shock when they see the prices airlines have stuck on their seats!