The latest polling of voters reads as bad news for the Federal Government with the Coalition leading on a two-party preferred basis. Peter Dutton is now substantially ahead of Anthony Albanese as preferred Prime Minster. And these numbers add more drama to the data drop next Wednesday when the December quarter inflation rate is revealed.

Why is the Consumer Price Index so important for voting intentions? Well, questions asked by the SMH’s pollster (i.e. Resolve Strategic) underline how important the cost of living and persistently high interest rates are to voters right now.

Before looking at the cost of living responses to this survey, let’s get the numbers of voting intentions. Here they are:

1. Preferred PM: Dutton 39% to Albanese 34%.
2. Primary Vote: Coalition 38% to Labor 27%
3. Two Party Preferred: 51% to 49% to Coalition.
4. Greens have 15% support and One Nation 7%.

Behind this increasing affection for the once largely unloved Peter Dutton is voter frustration over the cost of living.

The SMH’s David Crowe looked at the survey’s findings on this subject and found:

• 46% of voters expect their real wages to fall.
• 50% expect inflation to get worse.
• 25% think their income has kept up with inflation.
• 29% think their income will keep up with inflation.

These are damning numbers for Labor and mean that if the core inflation number is too high and economists say we should forget a February rate cut, then Albo should book a removalist truck to shift his stuff from the Lodge to his new pad Copacabana.

For the record, what do I think of my fellow countrymen’s take on their inflation future?

• 46% say real wages will fall: I expect inflation to be 2%, so real wages could easily rise as average wage rises are over 3%.
• In fact, last year average pay rose by 4.2% but inflation was 3%, though core inflation was 3.5%.

But these are average figures and there could be a big minority who didn’t even get a pay rise and are feeling the pressure of high interest rates, which have been here for two years.

The statistics say many Aussies are exaggerating their inflation pain, but their hip pockets and their cost of living are telling them a different story.

And this bad message on inflation is terrible news for Albo and great news for Peter Dutton.