The good news is — I was right on the economy, beating the recession, containing the virus, the earlier-than-expected arrival of a vaccine, the path to normalcy coming along faster than expected and how the fiscal cliff would be a mere step down before it started to ascend.

The bad news is I reckon I’m right that this ‘low interest rates on hold for three years’ promise of the RBA looks under threat of being broken!

And a story in the Wall Street Journal and the view of a Deutsche Bank economist makes me even more sure that I’ll be right on rates. This all comes as the run of economic data in recent weeks has been sensational and your Christmas wish has to be that we get continuing great gifts from the vaccine-makers of the world.

Let me remind you that because I’ve led the charge on optimism for the economic rebound and the arrival of a vaccine, helped by the experts I selected to believe in, like Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye, I’ve questioned if the RBA can keep the cash rate at 0.1% for three years.

I don’t think they’ll move it next year but 2022 looks possible, especially if economic growth is higher than expected next year.

Deutsche Bank's Phil Odonaghoe is a believer in the Oz economic ‘comeback’ story. “We expect Australia will materially outperform other countries over coming quarters," he told the AFR’s Matthew Cranston.

And it comes as other economists are upgrading their economic growth guesses for 2021. The CBA team is now at 4.2%, which is still less than the RBA’s 5% call!

Add all this growth optimism to rising house prices (where one-third of our regions are in record high territory, half of our capital cities are too and ANZ is predicting a 9% gain in prices across the capitals next year) and this suggests interest rates could be under pressure.

This is where the Wall Street Journal comes in, with James Glynn’s headline telling us that “Shock recovery in house prices unnerves the RBA.”

House prices are now widely expected to recapture their pandemic-induced losses by early next year.

The WSJ thinks the RBA boss, Dr Phil Lowe, is playing it cool right now, wanting to see inflation spike and jobs flow before he could get twitchy on raising interest rates.

He also could phone APRA and tell them to play hardball with banks and lending, which might be worth remembering if you’ll soon be looking for a loan. APRA controls the tap of funding. If house prices go up too fast, the supply of loans could be reduced. “I think he will certainly make the call to APRA if needed given his often expressed concerns about financial stability,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. But it wouldn’t come until home-lending growth was a lot faster, with clear evidence of lax lending standards, and house prices had moved well above previous highs and were rising well in excess of growth in incomes,” he said.

Time is on our side for now, but it is why I liked that four-year fixed rate hone loan for the CBA at 1.99% for anyone who’s overborrowed and wants stability with outgoing payments.

In case you need convincing that our economy is roaring back, have a look at these numbers from this week:

• A record 3.3% September quarter growth. 
• Company operating profits rose by 3.2% in the September quarter (consensus: 4%).
• Construction loans during the month totalled $2.9 billion, almost double the average $1.5 billion a month.
• For the first time in 2½ years, new car sales turned positive, with people buying 10,000 more cars in November than the same month last year.
• The ‘final’ IHS Markit services PMI rose from 53.7 to 55.1 in November – the highest reading since July. 
• The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) Performance of Construction Index (PCI) lifted from of 52.7 to a 2½-year high of 55.3 in November. 
• The value of new loan commitments for housing rose by 0.7% in October to record highs. Loans are up over 34% in five months.
• The trade surplus rose by $1.6 billion to $7.46 billion in October. Australia has posted 34 successive monthly trade surpluses.
• The biggest ever month of iron ore exports.
• The spot iron ore price surged to $US136 a tonne this week – the highest since 2013 – as Australia's trade surplus showed monthly iron ore exports reached a record $13.5 billion.
• Iron ore exports to October this year are already $13.2 billion ahead of the three-year annual average and present a significant boost to the government's revenue and overall budget position.

But the best ‘economic’ news this week was the Pfizer vaccine news that Poms will be jabbed next week! This brings forward the economic recovery and brings life normalcy closer, which by the way, has always come with higher interest rates.