Every week is precious for those Australians hoping for an interest rate cut this year and it’s not just those with big home loans but also small business owners who need cost relief and customers with more money in their pockets or bank accounts.

There are two pretty important people in Canberra as well, namely PM Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers, whose political popularity is sinking faster than the Titanic!

These rates-concerned Aussies have to endure three more meetings of the RBA board this year, so economic indicators need to show that inflation is dropping nicely, and unemployment is rising notably for there to be a ghost of a hope of a cut before Christmas.

In case you’re wondering, the board is scheduled to meet on September 24. That’s next week, but there’s no meeting in October, which means the November 5 meeting will attract a lot of attention.

For the optimists, the CBA and Westpac economics teams are punting on a Cup Day rate cut, which happens on the first Tuesday in November. The event was first described by US author and wisecrack merchant Mark Twain, “as the race that stops a nation”, but if we see a cut on November 5, it will be the rate reduction that stops a nation!

If rate worriers draw a blank and get nothing from the RBA and the big race, the next big hope goes to December 10, which will be the last chance for a cut in 2024. Significantly, the September National Accounts are released on December 6 and that could help deliver a cut, especially if the economic growth number is negative, which is a chance.

The July quarter growth number came in 0.2% and 1% for the year, which was the slowest growth rate since the 1990s recession! “For the sixth consecutive quarter, Australian economic activity declined on a per capita basis and the 1.5 per cent decline over the past year is the largest Australia has experienced in 33 years, excluding the pandemic,” said Callam Pickering, Indeed’s APAC economist, to the ABC.

“That's why it feels like a recession for many Australians, despite economic growth remaining positive and unemployment relatively low.”

So, it’s fair to say that growth is telling the RBA to cut ASAP.

Meanwhile, the annual take on the monthly CPI came in at 3.5% in August, and as the RBA wants inflation in the 2-3% band, this latest number is saying that inflation is on the slide. But no one can be confident that it will fall to where the central bank wants it.

If the economy was a student sitting an inflation test, the teacher’s report would probably read: “On the improve but can’t afford to rest on their laurels.”

Importantly, the next big inflation test is the September quarter inflation reading, which comes out of the ABS on October 30, just seven days before the RBA board’s Cup Day meeting.

In between, we have this week’s employment report on Thursday, where 20,000 jobs are expected to have been created last month, but a lower number would be better for interest rate worriers, business owners, as well as Albo and Jim!

If this reading of the labour market isn’t screaming “alert, recession possible!”, then there’s another jobs number on October 17, which has to suggest the labour market is deteriorating. If it’s not a bad figure for the jobless, a Cup Day cut will look as hopeless as most Australian-born neddies in the big race, which seems to be won by foreign-bred stayers nowadays. Damn globalisation!

Helping the case for a cut is retail, building and even investment figures. While both business and consumer confidence look absolutely shot, inflation and unemployment statistics are still not good enough for the RBA.

History tells me that the central bank nearly always waits too long to raise and cut rates, but there’s not enough reliable economic analysis for me to rely on to bag the board for being slow learners when it comes to moving rates in a timely manner.

That said, when I try to pick a Melbourne Cup winner, I go to experts who watch the four-legged lottery 24/7. While they might get it wrong, they know more about the gee-gees than me. So, the fact that both the ‘form students’ on the economy at the CBA and Westpac are tipping a rate cut on Cup Day makes me think that interest rate worriers and those two blokes in Canberra could have a chance of popping champers on November 5.

They’re all in the hands of the ABS and what the statistician spits out over the next seven weeks.