The one headline I don’t want to run with and talk about in the media is the increased chances of a double dip recession. Alas, it is a headline today and it’s driven by a close economist mate of mine — the highly respected AMP Capital chief economist, Shane Oliver.

And while it’s not journalistic tradition to hose down a scary story too early, I have to put out there that Shane guesses it’s a 45% chance. Anyone who’s comfortable with numbers and tends to be optimistic might say he still thinks it probably won’t happen but it could.

As someone who owns a business with a lot of employees, I want the economy to dodge growing negatively or contracting in the three months to June because I know the three months in the current September quarter will be a shocker.

Economists call a technical recession two quarters (or six months) of negative growth. This will kill jobs, pump up unemployment and stop worried consumers from spending. So businesses are afraid to invest, which in turn creates a negativity cycle that takes away more jobs, and the economy spirals downward.

This is what’s happening now as lockdowns used to beat the Delta strain of the Coronavirus force us into a real-life recession. But it’s hoped that it will only last, statistically seriously, for the September quarter.

The hope is vaccination rates will surge into October and restrictions are eased across November and December. So statistically the economy will grow again.

Of course, businesses in the real world (like pubs, cafes, restaurants, tourism venues and so on) might experience a big rebound in business but they could be licking their wounds from three months of recession for years to come. In fact, business in the CBDs of Sydney and Melbourne have been in recession since March of last year, and it’s for them I hope the media doesn’t get to eventually hit us with headlines in newspapers, websites, radio and TV news bulletins that “Australia has gone into recession!”

It might be good for their businesses short-term, as worried Australians fear something they don’t fully understand, but what they soon might think is: “Is my job under threat?”

That very thought by too many Australians will lead to less consumer spending, less homebuying and falling house prices. And it could even result in our stock market, which is in record high territory, heading down.

Fortunately, low interest rates and government spending will help the economy, and given what we saw after last year’s recession and what I’m seeing overseas, once the vaccination rates permit more normal business life, the economy and jobs will roar back.

I’m expecting a very strong economic growth year in 2022 but normal people, who currently are coping with the virus-infected Australia, won’t be thinking about next year and how good it will be if they’re told we’re in a double-dip recession now.

Lots of Australians who can work from home could be socially worse off because of restrictions but economically better off. And we don’t want these people going into their shells when it comes to spending.

Shane Oliver’s more negative view on the June quarter came after construction data was up only 0.8% when economists tipped 2.8%. This follows weaker exports in the June quarter, and combined with slower construction activity, it could make the June quarter a small negative for growth.

Despite his wariness about June’s growth number, out next Wednesday, Shane Oliver says we “...can still have a good bounce back in the December quarter or more significantly through 2022.” Now that’s the Dr Shane I prefer to hear!