Elections are in the air. While Donald Trump attempts to be the US President in one day’s time, Anthony Albanese has launched Labor’s re-election campaign in Adelaide on the weekend, with student debt and new education initiatives spearheading the Government’s “please give us another go” pitch.

Significantly, as a potential President Trump could engage in a trade war with China, if he delivers on his pre-poll promise to hit Beijing with a 60% tariff on all goods from the world’s second biggest economy, our trade minister Don Farrell is in Shanghai talking up our trade relationship with our most important export partner.

The Australian’s Will Glasgow reported the important story that the “Chinese Commerce minister gives Don Farrell ‘personal assurances’ Australian beef, lobster bans to end”.

This has led Farrell to go on a China-praising rant, which while being quite believable, looks like it’s timed to remind Australians that a President Trump could put us in a China syndrome drama we’d prefer not to have.

As Glasgow reported: “Don Farrell has declared trade with China could grow by another $75 billion, as he called for more ambition in the economic relationship after receiving a “personal” assurance from the Chinese Commerce Minister that bans on Australian beef and lobster were likely to end before the federal election”.

In case you’re not up with the Trump tariff plans, he’s told his adoring audiences that he plans all countries would face a 10-20% tariff for selling goods to the US, while China would cop a 60% slug on its exports coming to the US!

If Trump wins and keeps his word, it would lead to:

1. Reciprocal tariffs on US exports from China, the EU and elsewhere. And I guess even Australia!
2. Global inflation would increase.
3. Interest rate cuts would be derailed, and we might see rate rises.
4. Trump would pressure us to support our old ally on the promise of respecting our existing Free Trade Agreement, but we would have to support his trade war against China.
5. If we looked to be supportive, undoubtedly China would hit us with lobster, beef and other bans.

Given the thrust of Farrell’s story for The Australian, Labor wants to remind Beijing and we Aussies that we can’t easily dump our trade buddy if a President Trump wants us to support him.

Farrell’s pro-China praise came as more than 250 Australian businesses showed their ‘stuff’ at the world’s biggest trade show, the China International Import Expo that’s being held in Shanghai this week. And the Minister was happy to talk the numbers that makes us think about what President Trump could damage.

Here are those Farrell figures:

1. Our trade with China was $327 billion last year.
2. Trade with China could grow by another $73 billion to $400 billion in the year ahead.
3. The Chinese economy makes $18 trillion worth of goods and services each year.
4. It grew by 5% last year and “that’s an extra trillion dollars”, the Minister pointed out.

He didn’t say this but the whole story implied that Donald Trump could be a problem for the Australian economy, and Labor is more likely to be closer to Beijing than a Dutton-led government that’s more likely to be closer to Washington.

While a reporter isn’t likely to say this, when elections are in the air, everything that comes out of a politician’s mouth is bound to have the intention to make voters like them and their party more.

Clearly, a Kamala Harris win would be good for Labor as it would reduce the likelihood of dealing with demands from Donald Trump to support him in his Beijing battle. However, it would deprive the PM of being able to point at his rival as a Trump lover that could result in bans for our exports and a slower economy with rising interest rates, thanks to the potential Trump tariffs!

Who would have thought politicians could think like that?