Like it or not, we’re stuck with Donald Trump for the next three and a quarter years. His influence is stretching across the world, with his geopolitical and economic views dominating not just headlines but political debate and, ultimately, political decisions that will affect the world, the global economy and an area that someone like me can’t ignore him — financial markets!
The greatest example of his indirect influence on worldwide actions has to be the boldness of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. I doubt Netanyahu would’ve been so self-confident to pursue his Middle East military play with someone like Barack Obama, Joe Biden or even George Bush Jnr behind the Resolute Desk.
It's clear Trump has given Netanyahu the silent nod to do what he thinks he has to do. This isn’t a credit for Trump, when objectively assessing his performance to date.
Meanwhile, his desire to get down and dirty with Vladmir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the Ukraine war has to be seen as a plus for a guy who could’ve just let the whole tragedy drag on until Russia got serious and Ukrainians live or die to regret it.
On the economic front, his tariffs are a shock to the economics community. They don’t represent conventional and academically acceptable economic policy. However, Trump wants to reduce the US' out-of-control government deficit and debt escalation, so he gets a tick for trying at the very least.
Many can see there’s a certain method in his madness in making the world pay for the protection (or implied protection) the US provides as the so-called global police force. His negotiations are forceful and non-political and show he was mentored by one of the most despised characters in New York and US history.
The man in question was Ray Cohn, a lawyer who was one of the greatest benders and even breakers of the law. Cohn took a young Trump aside and gave him three rules that are enacted countlessly when we see Trump in action.
Those rules were:
Rule 1. Attack. Attack. Attack.
Rule 2. Admit nothing. Deny everything.
Rule 3. Claim victory and never admit defeat.
This explains the inane side of Trump: when he argues a point that no sensible or reasonable person would run up the flagpole and expect smart people to salute it. But his supporters do and they’re a big bloc of voters, which gives him the mandate to pull off a presidency we’ve never seen before. Even from him.
In terms of financial markets, Trump has shown that he can learn. Ever since stock and bond markets convulsed when they thought he was serious about his excessive Liberation Day tariffs, he has now embraced the so called TACO theory: Trump Always Chickens Out.
While TACO was created by an ex-Trump team member Anthony Scaramucci as an insult, the fact Trump does talk tough and backs down has proved to be good for stocks, with the rally in share prices since Liberation Day now called the TACO trade.
This TACO trade has delivered a 28% rise for the US-based S&P 500 index, while locally we added 21%.
Of course, while Wall Street and investment bank chief investment officers can be wrong, the consensus view is that stocks go higher under Donald Trump and to date he has delivered.
Personally, I’ve argued that while Donald Trump isn’t my kind of guy, he is a man of action, often in any direction he can find. As George Bernard Shaw once noted: “Nothing is ever accomplished by a reasonable man.” Trump isn’t reasonable. While he is achieving things, one of his greatest contributions might be to make the Democrats grow up and start being a party that represents US democracy.
When you look at some of the greatest quotes from high achievers, they nearly always encourage people to take action.
The famous US basketball coach John Wooden gave us a beauty with: “Don’t let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.”
Another basketball great, Michael Jordan, looked at actions that failed until they worked, when he said: “I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.” Apple’s Steve Jobs recognised how people of action were the important prime movers in history. Jobs said: “The greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing.”
While I don’t think Donald Trump will ever be quoted seriously upon reflection, his actions and what he achieves won’t be ignored by the annals of history. And they won’t be all bad.
If you disagree, then you have an objectivity problem akin to that political party in the US that gave us Donald Trump, again!
One final point: I have to be objective about Trump because I look after my clients’ money. This guy is a big deal in the world of money right now, and he’s someone I definitely can’t ignore.