With figures for our exports to the US at record levels, has this lower tariff policy for Aussie exporters been an act of charity by America’s ‘super’ President? Or true to the American way, is there merely something in it for them?

Despite the Trump tariffs, Australian exports to the USA have surged. While some see this as the US President’s cunning plan backfiring on him, maybe it should be portrayed as us getting the favourite ally treatment. After all, our exports only cop a 10% tariff slug while many of our rivals are being asked to pay a much greater levy on their exports sold into the US.

The AFR’s Michael Read has looked at the trade figures and revealed the following: “Australian businesses sold a record $6.9 billion of goods to the United States in the three months to September, up from $5.8 billion one year earlier. Sales to the United States have not just held up but strengthened in the months since the tax came into effect across most major product lines.”

So, how is this so? Let’s consider the following:

1. US rivals can’t easily get some of our exports elsewhere, including parts for Boeing and plasma from CSL.
2. Products like our local beef are preferred. Beef saw a 26% rise in sales to the US putting the figure at $1.6 billion for the three months to September.
3. Commercially sensitive exports (called “confidential” exports) were up three times to $412 million.
4. Possibly the US economy and/or certain sectors in that economy more closely linked to our exports have expanded, increasing demand for what we sell.
5. But probably and more importantly, as Read points out: “Australian exports face a 10 per cent tariff compared with Brazilian exports which now have a 50 per cent tariff.”

Read also revealed that despite threats of a 100% tariff on our pharmaceutical exports, which was a big negative for the outlooks for CSL and Telix Pharmaceutical, these haven’t materialised and both companies argue it won’t significantly affect their bottom lines.

On the subject of whether these export gains have been helped by a stronger economy than was expected, despite the tariffs, John Kunkel of the United States Studies Centre told the AFR: “Notwithstanding what many economists think, the American economy has remained very robust.”

That might a contentious matter because the President’s US record 41 day shutdown has meant the US Statistician hasn’t delivered economic data, which has meant two jobs reports for September and October haven’t been delivered.

While Fed boss Jerome Powell used the F-word to describe the central bankers problem of trying to work out if his economy needed another rate cut, with no official economic data, he is operating in a “fog”.

When that fog clears, we might find the US economy is weaker than currently expected. However, these export figures that favour us, could also be saying the US economy and its famous innovative entrepreneurs are actually pivoting in a Trump tariff world and doing okay, possibly helped by AI, so Australian exporters have been beneficiaries of the President’s ‘outside the square’ trade policy.

That said, I bet that the 10% tariff has been a big help, given the likes of India has copped a 50% slug and 39% for Switzerland. The same goes for other export rivals, which has been a nice leg up for a pretty close ally of the US like us.

Interestingly, containers out of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne are up 5-7% in September compared to last year, which implies rising export sales. Some of this has to be because Donald Trump played favourites with an ally that, by the way, historically buys more from the US than it sells to its big brother buddy.

If we can accuse America’s new ‘super’ President Trump of being pro-Australia, we shouldn’t be surprised that his act of charity had something in it for him. For superman fans it’s called: “The American Way!”