I know many of you are thinking rate rises this year are a done deal but let me show you what expert economists think is likely to happen.

Goodbye holiday world! Welcome back to the real world. And yep, hello, we’re back!

The first exaggeration I want to send on a break is the belief that interest rates have to rise this year. Yep, while I know many of you are thinking this is a done deal, let me show you what expert economists think is likely to happen.

Sure, while I know expert economists tipped we’d see more rate cuts than we got last year, these people are like expert horse tipsters — they can get it wrong. But they’re generally better informed about the ‘form’ on the economy than the man in the street or the journalist who wants to drag you into read their story.

While I know bad news sells, my history (which started out as a teacher and then lecturer in economics at great halls of learning like the University of NSW, to name one) means I am in the truth-seeking caper.

On that subject, a great piece by the AFR’s respected journalist Cecile LeFort looked at what 38 economists were thinking about interest rate changes this year.

Her piece had the headline: “Rapid, repeated interest rate rises coming this year, economists say” but when you read the piece, a different interpretation could be made. (By the way, the one thing I learnt after decades writing for the likes of The Daily Telegraph, The Sun Herald and The Australian was that as a writer I never got the headline I wanted. Headlines are the domain of sub-editors, whose job it is to get readers to read the story.

So, what were the conclusions from LeFort’s work? Try these revelations:

1. The CBA and NAB economics teams expect a rate rise next month, taking the cash rate from 3.6% to 3.85%.
2. 17 out of the 38 economists tip at least two hikes this year!
3. However, 16 out of 38 economists see, wait for it, no change in rates this year.
4. And it gets better for those praying for a cut. Nine economists see the cash rate below the current 3.6% by year’s end!
5. So, adding the ‘no change’ economists to the ‘rate cut’ economists, we now have 25 out of 38 economists not thinking we’ll see a rate rise this year!
6. But wait there’s more, with four economists seeing at least two cuts this year, with Yarra Capital Tim Toohey telling us that the cash rate might be 2.85% by Christmas this year!

If Toohey’s right, then our economy will have slowed, and unemployment would’ve gone a lot higher.

The bottom line is that there is no consensus from the experts that track our economy every day and the argument for rates on hold is actually a more majority view than the “rates must rise” prediction.

While you were holidaying, we saw the November CPI number that showed inflation wasn’t quite as bad as many have been guessing. But it was a monthly figure, which isn’t regarded as highly as the quarterly number.

On this basis, annual inflation dropped to 3.4%, which was lower than the 3.6% forecasted by our expert economists. While that was a good sign, it was helped by the Black Friday discount sales, so the December quarterly figure out on January 28 will be crucial for what the RBA does on rates on February 3.

And it will be important to see what economic models are the more accurate.