The reality of being the country’s number one number-cruncher and bookkeeper must be dawning on Dr Jim Chalmers, as multi-billion aged care and welfare demands will make him become a Dr No! Forcing him to play scrooge with the nation’s tax collections is a structural budget deficit of $50 billion made worse by a high rate of inflation.

The James Bond film Dr No was said to be the inspiration for the genre of secret agent films that started in the 1960s through to today, and we’ll have to wait until Budget Day on May 9 to see what spending secrets Dr Jim will give a YES! or NO! to. It will be blockbuster viewing for economists like me and welfare recipients.

The AFR explained in simple terms Dr Jim’s dilemma being a Labor Treasurer, who’d want to say ‘yes’ to helping the aged, the unemployed and those helped by the National Disability Insurance Service. “Figures released by Treasurer Jim Chalmers ahead of the May 9 budget show the cost of delivering aged care will rise by 23 per cent, increasing from $24.8 billion to an estimated $29.6 billion – and that’s before the pay rise for aged care workers, which will cost $1.9 billion per year,” Tony McIlroy and Michael Read revealed.

But this new Dr No persona has been encouraged by an expert committee report that has 37 recommendations to spend billions on JobSeeker, rental assistance, parenting payments, the aged care community and so on, just when the interest on debt, the NDIS, health and national security are all demanding billions more spending each year.

As I say, this is going to be a must-watch Treasurer Speech at 7.30 pm on May 9 to see how Dr Jim gets a tick for being economically responsible, while helping all those who need government assistance as inflation via the likes of higher petrol, power and rent bills go through the roof.

Chalmers task isn’t made easier by former Wallabies hardman and now ACT Senator David Pocock, who has a caring soft side that wants to see less spent on “inland rail cost blowouts” and “submarines” and more on welfare recipients. In fact, Pocock forced the Government to set up an economic inclusion advisory committee in exchange for him supporting their industrial relations bill. Now that committee wants Dr Jim to say ‘yes’ to increasing the JobSeeker payment from 70% of the aged pension to 90%. “A single person on JobSeeker receives up to $347 per week, or $49.50 per day, while a single pensioner gets about $500 per week, according to Services Australia,” the AFR explained. “Because the age pension is benchmarked more generously than JobSeeker, the gap between the two payments stood at $160 per week at the end of 2021, compared to $35 in 2000.”

Clearly, to make welfare recipients better off, other taxpayers and businesses receiving government support and/or relatively generous tax rates, could find May 9 a hip-pocket hitting experience.

The only silver lining in this black budget cloud could be the rebound of the Chinese economy that should keep resource prices high, which then could deliver lots of extra billions to the Budget’s bottom line.

In March 2022, the AFR revealed that then Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told us, that “Australian iron ore and coal exports will add $29.5 billion to the bottom line over the next four years, if booming commodity prices continue for another six months.” Frydenberg also pointed out that national income would also “get a significant boost from ongoing higher prices, lifting nominal GDP $135.2 billion higher over the same period.”

So, China could be the great ‘red’ hope for the welfare community and a Treasurer trying to get his Budget out of the red!