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Cheap rescue loans for The Walking Dead

Peter Switzer
4 February 2021

We often laugh at the old line: “I’m from the Government and I’m here to help” but this idea of Treasury to provide HECS-style loans for businesses still struggling with the Coronavirus restrictions could be a lifeline that will exterminate a whole army of potential zombies.

On March 28, JobKeeper is no more. Last year, alarmist commentators were telling us there would be a fiscal cliff the economy would fall over when it ends.

Those alarmists (especially in the media) loved to use the terms zombie businesses and zombie workers and these were to be the poor jokers who were set to slide over the cliff.

Well, because the economy has done much better than the negative nervous Nellies were predicting, there are less zombie businesses and zombie workers. Undoubtedly, JobKeeper has kept some potential zombies alive. If that’s possible. I’ve never watched an episode of The Walking Dead, so I’m not a zombie expert.

This Treasury idea to introduce a HECS-style loan program for businesses, under which pandemic-affected firms can borrow money to be ­repaid, once turnover returns to a predetermined level, could be a zombie killer and a great idea!

The RBA boss Dr Phil Lowe told the National Press Club yesterday that some job-shedding is expected after JobKeeper goes, but a low interest rate loan, which businesses wouldn’t have to pay back until their turnover rebounded, is good for businesses (beaten up by the Coronavirus restrictions) and the people they employ (who might be sacked without this loan idea).

The Australian says the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, has not given this loan idea the green light but he should because it’s a damn good idea and better than simply giving handouts to businesses struggling with the world since COVID-19 came to town.

Supporting the idea is one of Australia’s best economists, the ANU’s Professor Warwick McKibbin, who put forward something like this last year. “The first  time around (in the initial phases of the pandemic), you had to spray money around and some of that was wasted, but this time around you want to do it in a much more targeted way,” he told The Australian’s Patrick Commins. “You’ve got to be careful with the selection process, which would mean screening for eligibility by region and sector.”

All this potential jobs and business support comes as Dr Lowe surprised many with his additional $100 billion of quantitative easing announced this week, which throws more money into the economy and will keep interest rates lower for longer!

Months ago he quite shocked economists, telling us that interest rates would be at these low levels for three years. But this week he added awe to the shock by saying the official cash rate could be at 0.25% until 2024!

He wants unemployment under 5%, substantial wage rises and inflation well and truly in the 2-3% band before he’s about to take the foot off the pedal.

In contrast, the Treasurer says he’ll start turning his attention to getting down the budget deficit once unemployment is under 6%. It’s currently 6.8%. And this possible loan programme for virus-affected businesses could actually help the jobless rate fall faster than is currently expected.

The bottom line conclusion is that both the RBA boss and Treasurer have learnt from the former European central bank boss, Mario Draghi, who said on becoming the head of ECB, that he’d do “whatever it takes” to turnaround the EU economy after the GFC. Interestingly, overnight, the Italian President Sergio Mattarello asked ‘Super Mario’ to form a unity government to rescue Italy from the backwash of the Coronavirus!

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