Anyone hoping that airfares might come down out of the clouds and back to normal better levels should know that airline costs are ready to go skyward, with the Transport Workers Union set to muscle up for a big pay rise.

This coincides with a number of positives for the TWU, including:

1. The exit of the strong negotiator boss of Qantas, Alan Joyce, who’ll be replaced by its current CFO Vanessa Hudson.
2. Wall-to-wall Labor governments, except in Tasmania.
3. 7% inflation for the past year gives unions a right to ask for higher pay.
4. Australians post-covid lockdowns are travelling like there’s no tomorrow, despite record high prices for flying anywhere!

Heading up the TWU is the national secretary Michael Kaine, who’s optimistic that he’s holding the winning cards in the upcoming game of ‘wage poker’. And he doesn’t look like a bluffer. “The electoral map is overwhelmingly red, and we have a federal government and governments in five states and two territories who share our goal of creating a better, fairer, more equal Australia,” Mr Kaine told The Australian in an exclusive for the newspaper. “This is an historic opportunity.”

The union has 10,000 aviation workers, including pilots, cabin crew, baggage handlers, refuellers, catering staff and cleaners. Kaine will be going to the Fair Work Commission, and in his own words to “to substantially lift pay and conditions” for his constituency.

The TWU boss seems over the moon at the exit of Alan Joyce as CEO of Qantas and believes his replacement, along with the government support he’s expecting at both federal and state levels, will help him achieve his union’s goals. On them, this is what he told The Australian: “Reversing 15 years of cumulative attacks on workers from a callous Qantas management team will take time, but if the TWU is known for anything, it is for our relentlessness”.

And he knows he has real parliamentary power helping his cause. “With a groundswell across Australia and in parliament for fairer wages and job security, we have a unique opportunity to recalibrate the industry, to rebuild aviation around a strong, skilled workforce as its nucleus,” he told The Oz. “We will marry up that power with the industrial instruments at our disposal to lift standards root and branch across our airports. We will do everything in our power to achieve this.”

These are fighting words. And it’s likely to be a sentiment that other union leaders will be carrying, which doesn’t augur well for wage costs, inflation and interest rates.

Yesterday I posed the question about whether Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers will have the scrooge-like characteristics of former treasurers, including Labor’s hero — Paul Keating — who often took on his fellow MPs and ministers, when what they wanted was economically bad for the country.

A Newspoll conducted for The Australian found four in 10 people believed inflation will rise because of the Budget, while almost 50% insisted the budget spend will make no difference or remain unsure about it, according the latest poll. Close to one third argued it was “bad”, with 39% saying it’ll be neither good or bad for families who continue to struggle with grocery and energy bills.

We’ve been focused on Dr Phil Lowe in beating down inflation with interest rates, but now it’s Dr Jim’s turn. If inflation does go higher and interest rates need to rise to offset it, both doctors will be sickened by their unpopularity. Go the Scrooge, Dr Jim!