If you’re still scratching your head wondering why Labor won the May 2 election so comfortably - aside from the Trump effect, the Dutton effect and the dumb Liberal election strategy effect, yesterday’s job numbers had a role to play all on their own.

They say hindsight is 20/20. While I thought (and told) all and sundry that Albo would get up on the day, I never dreamt of a 93-seat thumping for the Government in the House of Reps. Nor did I consider Labor and the Greens having the numbers to pass laws without the help of independents.

Canada showed us right before our own election how the influential Trump tariffs and the subsequent stock market impact would be on the chances of right-wing parties looking for re-election. While Peter Dutton didn’t roll out a full Trump impersonation, there were overtones of Trumpism in his campaign. You see it in calls about ordering workers back to the office, for example. He was also happy to push for "common sense" policies, which was the playbook of the US President as he campaigned ahead of his November 2024 election win.

Then there was the dumb strategy of the Coalition strategists to not simply point to the economic scoreboard. It would have showed the cost of living (inflation for those playing at home) was a shocker under the first-term of the Albanese government. We should’ve been bombarded with memories of 13 rate rises, even though some were created via the Morrison government policies but were delivered after Albo and Dr Jim Chalmers took control of the economy. They took power on 23 May 2022 and the first-rate rise was June of that year.

This InfoChoice table above shows that our cash rate topped out at 4.35%, before we saw the first cut by 0.25% in February this year. CBA’s economics team and other economists were tipping the first rate cut would be in cutting rates in September 2024, which was out by a whole six months! Also, most economists didn’t see the cash rate at 4.1%, let alone 4.35%.

The persistence of our inflation rate and, arguably, the 0.75% to 1% of our rate rises could be blamed on the budgetary and wages policies of the Albanese government.  In case you’ve forgotten, note this: “The legislation means all 13.6 million taxpayers will receive a tax cut – 2.9 million more than would’ve benefited from Scott Morrison’s plan from five years ago – and 11.5 million taxpayers (84% of taxpayers) will receive a bigger tax cut. It means that 5.8 million women (90% of female taxpayers) will now receive a bigger tax cut. Nurses, teachers, and truckies are some of the most likely to benefit, with more than 95% of those taxpayers getting a bigger tax cut.” (pm.gov.au)

Meanwhile, the solid Albanese wage rises are captured in this chart from AMP’s economics team.

The Government kept propping up the economy, which sustained inflation higher than economists expected, but overall, it helped create jobs. This was a powerful help to Labor in the May 2 election.

Many people think interest rates are a huge vote-swayer but someone losing their job is a bigger one. This week, the good employment news continued. Here’s the summary from CommSec’s chief economist, Ryan Felsman:

1. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, but employment growth strong.
2. Employment up a big 89,000 when 22,500 was tipped by economists!

While this could make next week’s interest rate cut harder to justify by the RBA, thankfully Felsman and the CBA are still in the rate cut camp.

Of course, if these guys are wrong, we know who's to blame.

While big budget tax cuts and good wage rises have kept inflation high until recently, they created jobs and votes for the Albanese government to ride again with a spectacular majority.