Businesses anticipate a long lag of perhaps three-to five years before the peak impact on their job headcount by using artificial intelligence materialises.

Right now, doubts about Artificial Intelligence and whether it has been over-hyped, over-invested in and over-bought by US-dominated share players explain why stock prices have been negative of late. However, here in Australia, a Reserve Bank study shows our take-up of AI is on the low side.

Sure, while plenty of people in business are using the likes of Microsoft’s Copilot or ChatGPT that generate answers to questions we put into our browsers, the RBA has found the adoption of AI processes in businesses is “shallow to date, with nearly 40 per cent indicating minimal use so far”.

While AFR’s Technology Paul Smith reports that “the use of, and investment in, AI has exploded since ChatGPT was introduced in 2022” that spend was more overseas. However, our data centres have outlaid money to prepare for the expected greater use of AI and its eventual increase in demand on data centres like those of Next DC and the Goodman Group.

Locally, the RBA found our spending on technology was more for cybersecurity. While those investing in AI are yet to see notable productivity gains, they expect it to be a future pay-off. “For AI specifically, firms anticipated a longer lag – which could perhaps be between three-to-five years – before the peak impact on their headcount materialises,” the RBA’s research revealed. “This slightly longer timeframe could reflect AI’s position as a relatively new technology that firms must first embed into their processes and augmented workflows and train their staff to use to optimise its use.”

These expectations of greater benefits of AI down the track has led to the investment in machinery and equipment by tech companies rising to a record $1.4 billion in June.

To show how significant the likes of NextDC and the Goodman Group are, see what Smith reported: “An analysis on Tuesday found a surge in data-centre construction has made technology firms one of the biggest drivers of the economy, with spending on technology tripling over the past two years.”

AI is a slow train coming, which means workers don’t have to worry about their jobs any time soon.

In fact, yesterday’s job numbers showed the Australian economy unexpectedly created the most jobs in six months in October, with firms taking on more full-time workers, lowering the unemployment rate from a near four-year high of 4.5%. to 4.3%. While this reinforces my message, the AFR tells us that “the jobs most at risk, according to the RBA report, are routine finance roles such as bookkeeping, loan assessment and payroll, administrative and clerical support, contact centre jobs and junior professionals in general.” Meanwhile, there will be plenty of jobs in a future AI-world for engineers, data architects and customer experience specialists.

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