It’s another big week for data drops and every number and report that rolls off the computers of statisticians and economists could have a big bearing on when rate rises end and whether we dodge a recession.

After a great week when US inflation fell much more than expected, there was a growing chorus of experts telling market watchers that interest rate rises might have peaked. Meanwhile, here in Australia, the picture isn’t as clear. Our RBA paused this month as a response to falling inflation and other economic data looking rate-rise affected, but then came a too-good-to-be-true unemployment/employment report.

In case you missed it, employment rose by 53,000 jobs and unemployment didn’t rise as expected and stayed at a low 3.5%. We haven’t seen a number like this since the 1970s!

This is how AMP’s Shane Oliver saw the March jobs report: “In Australia, strong March jobs data adding to the risk of a wages breakout and the upswing in the residential property market (which if sustained would reverse the negative wealth effect from lower home prices) increase the risk of another RBA rate hike in May.

“Our base case is that with the labour market being a lagging indicator and economic growth and inflation likely to continue to slow, the RBA will remain on hold at its May meeting. But it’s a close call, with upcoming data on inflation to be watched closely.”

As an economist, I can tell you that Dr Phil Lowe would love to stop raising interest rates because he knows he’s flying blind on how many rate rises will be enough to beat our inflation problem. My bet is that he’s done enough. This chart below from Shane Oliver on his Economic Activity Trackers gives me good reason to think I’m right. Note how the red line for the USA and the blue line for Australia shows how our economies are slowing under the weight of aggressive rate rises. And I argue that when that mortgage cliff kicks in, with 800,000 mortgagees switching from fixed to variable rate home loans, there’ll be an even bigger drop in that blue line.

So what are the big data drops for this week for interest rate worriers? Try these:

1. CBA’s household spending figures have to show falling outlays by consumers (out Tuesday).
2. RBA minutes from the last meeting (Tuesday).
3. Westpac leading index, which guesses where the economy is going (Wednesday).
4. The latest Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, which gives insights on the buying of goods and services by businesses.

If you’re worried about our economic future, let me share the views of an economist like Shane Oliver:

• “The next 6-12 months are likely to see easing inflation pressures, central banks moving to get off the brakes and economic growth weakening but stronger than feared. Along with improved valuations, this should make for better [stock market] returns this year than in 2022. But there will still be bumps on the way – particularly regarding interest rates, recession risks, geopolitical risks and raising the US debt ceiling in the September quarter.”
• “Australian shares are likely to boosted by stronger economic growth than in other developed countries and stronger growth in China supporting commodity prices and as investors continue to like the grossed-up dividend yield of around 5.5%.”