Another dopey US bank bites the dust with Signature Bank, which was a crazy cryptocurrency specialising bank (and I use the word ‘bank’ cynically), making it now three that have gone belly up.
Be clear on this, I’m not saying the stock market might eventually get a surprise bank collapse, which could take share prices down big time, but that time isn’t now.
With the normal, non-business world panicking following news reports on normal TV, websites and newspapers (a world that needs drama, celebrity screw ups and anything called clickbait), these US bank failures are big news.
However, Wall Street is used to bad banks in the USA. They’ve seen it all before. That’s why the Dow Jones is up before the close as I pen this piece. More importantly, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 1.3%. That even shocks me! However, it says that the smarties are thinking about two important things that are making them buy stocks today.
First, they don’t think any important banks have any real problems. While that’s great, if it’s proved wrong then there would be a big sell-off.
That said, let me repeat what Mark Zandy, chief economist at debt ratings agency Moody’s said yesterday: “The [banking] system is as well-capitalised and liquid as it has ever been. The banks that are now in trouble are much too small to be a meaningful threat to the broader system.”
And I will share this that I gave to my Switzer Report subscribers yesterday. You need to hear this from Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chairman of market and investment strategy: “Silicon Valley Bank was in a league of its own — a high level of loans plus securities as a percentage of deposits, and very low reliance on stickier retail deposits as a share of total deposits. Bottom line: SVB carved out a distinct and riskier niche than other banks, setting itself up for large potential capital shortfalls in case of rising interest rates, deposit outflows and forced asset sales.”
Second, I think these failures could easily get the Fed to think twice about any future plans for more aggressive interest rate rises. This could be why the Nasdaq is up.
To today’s failed bank, Signature Bank was a cryptocurrency specialising bank. It followed money problems for its rival player in this space, Silvergate Bank.
This is how CNBC sees the developments: “Investors have worried that the collapse of Signature Bank, whose assets were seized Sunday evening by regulators, was inevitable following the impending liquidation of Silvergate Bank and given the increasing regulatory hostility toward crypto companies. Now that event is past us and has left young U.S.-based crypto start-ups with few options for banking relationships.”
What we’re seeing is reality biting, and it’s going to make a lot of young investors realise that you can be a disruptor for taxis, food delivery, hotels and many old-world activities, but try disrupting the banking and the world of money and you’re bound to lose money.
Crypto needs regulation and normal banks need to become major players, so regulations and risk management can make the space safer. This whole crypto world was always about high returns headlines but novice investors failed to understand that when returns are high, so are the risks.
Other screwy banks will fail in coming weeks but I doubt that any ‘proper’ banks will rattle us into being panicked for good reasons.
My only concern is that our market is tipped to open down 117 points, which doesn’t make sense with US stocks up and our dollar stronger.
I could be wrong being cautiously positive about what’s going on, but I hope I’m not.