Sorry for being a dog with a bone but I just had to sort out whether I’m right on the power of the bounce back of our economy. This isn’t just an ego thing arguing with fellow economics commentator, Terry McCrann, of News.com.au but I want to believe it for my own business, for the job security of my employees and all the workers out there who have their lives linked to the economy.

In case you missed it, I mentioned yesterday that I was invited on the Credlin programme on the Sky News Channel to discuss the claim by the Reserve Bank that the recession was over. After discussing a number of issues, Peta asked me about whether I thought the RBA was right on the recession call.

I said technically the recession looks to be over, if you can trust the RBA’s calculations. And I was about to say that many businesses and employees are still locked in a recession, especially in Terry’s beloved state of Victoria, where there aren’t too many feeling the warm breeze of the “The Summer Boom” that The Australian reports in today’s newspaper.

Before I could add to my initial statement the other night, Terry called out “No! No! No!”. But before I could return fire, Peta apologised to say she was out of time on the show!

I was left with economist frustration, not being able to engage Terry in a lively debate on what’s a really important issue.

I know that because I was at a function last night at the accounting group Bentley’s and was asked to talk to the small group about our economic outlook. After sharing my more positive view on where we were in the September quarter (growth-wise) and where we are now in the December quarter, a number of people came up to thank me for giving them the confidence that our economy is on the rebound.

Too many news outlets concentrate on the negative and actually do damage by devibing business owners, who need to invest and employ for their own success and that of our overall economy.

Because this is such an important issue and I didn’t want to just rely on the RBA’s call on the recession and my own analysis of the data, I decided to survey seven well-known economists to see if they agreed that the recession ended in the September quarter and that we’re growing even stronger in this December quarter.

My group of seven includes:

1. Craig James from CommSec
2. Shane Oliver from AMP Capital,
3. Sarah Hunter from BIS Oxford Economics,
4. Besa Deda of St. George,
5. Paul Bloxham of HSBC,
6. Warren Hogan of UTS
7. Chris Joye of Coolabah Capital.

And their answers simply got down to “yes and yes”. Yes, the recession ended in the September quarter. And yes, we’re still out of recession now, despite Victoria’s recent problems.

“Our early forecast is 1.5-2% growth in the September quarter,” Craig James said. “And that means that the recovery is underway already and further growth is likely in the current December quarter.”

Shane Oliver thinks the December quarter will bring 4% growth. That’s big!

Reinforcing this positive view is Deutsche Bank’s strategist Tim Baker, who told The Australian’s Patrick Commins that  “summer should see pent-up demand unleashed after months of heavy ­restrictions, most notably in Victoria”.

Driving this are the record low ­interest rates, unprecedented levels of welfare spending and recent tax cuts. And then there’s our great handling of COVID-19.

And this isn’t just an economist’s story of positivity, businesses in the real world are showing optimism.

“A new NAB survey also ­revealed the mood among businesses in the September quarter lifted sharply from three months earlier,” Commins tells us. “The report showed corporate Australia had recorded a ‘large turnaround’ in profitability, trading and employment conditions versus three months earlier when the nation was emerging from the national lockdown.”

Supporting this positive business story are the Seek and Linkedin job vacancies numbers, which are now near pre-COVID levels!

Sure, some businesses and people, especially in Victoria, are straddled with the negativity of the impact of the Coronavirus, but periods of good growth never help all people and all businesses. Sometimes some states can be booming while others are in near recession, but it’s the national story that affects more Australians. And right now, ours is heading in the right direction! And long may it be so.