Gloves are off in a battle over tariffs we have imposed on subsidised Chinese steel manufacturers. But how hard will China hit back?

Here we go again, with China identified as helping its steel manufacturers to undercut local ceiling steel frame makers. So, the Albanes Government has slapped a 10% tariff on these cheaper imports. This justifiable tit-for-tat tariff play comes with problems attached: what will China do to retaliate? Will it hit our iron exports? “That added to interim tariffs of between 35 per cent and 113 per cent on a range of products, including bolts and hot-rolled coil steel, which began in December and could be made permanent,” the AFR’s Michael Reed informed us.

The body that works out who’s cheating when it comes to trade is the Anti-Dumping Commission, and Beijing officials clearly aren’t happy and raised the possible implications for iron ore.

Led by our globally great miners BHP and Rio Tinto, the resources sector right now has been a bright spot for our stock market, with the former’s share price up 21.7% in the past 12 months, after tumbling from $50 to $35 from the start of 2024 to April 2025.

The comeback for our mining sector made up for the gradual fall from grace from the likes of CBA, which peaked at $191.40 in July last year and slumped to $141 in January this year. Over a similar period, JB Hi-Fi fell 33% after hitting $121 in August 2025.

What I’m saying here is that our stock market and super funds don’t need a tariff fight with China, just as our central bank is tipped to raise rates further, which isn’t a great tonic for share prices generally.

JB Hi-Fi

This problem of subsidised Chinese producers isn’t an isolated incident, with manufacturers BlueScope Steel and another called Rondo registering complaints about unfair competition.

The AFR reports that the “Australian Steel Institute chief executive Mark Cain said the surge in steel product imports that started two years ago was distorting the market” and Treasurer Chalmers has asked the Productivity Commission to look at dumping from China and, undoubtedly, other steel exporters.

This flare up over steel that could hit our important iron ore exports (which also contribute a lot to the budget via taxes paid by the big miners) comes as the iron ore buying body in China called the China Mineral Resources Group calls for sales to be in yuan and not just US dollars.

While China has always played hardball on trade and tariffs, with the arrival of the Trump tariff era and a new ethos of ‘might is right’, Australia has to expect some China pushback on these new tariffs.

Given our stock market is up only 2.66% over the past 12 months, we need Beijing to slug BHP like we need a hole in the head!