The time has come for me to make my 2026 predictions, and I have decided to do it in two parts. The first is where I agree with the conventional view. The second is where I disagree with the predictions of others.

The conventional view is that Anthony Albanese will still be Prime Minister on Christmas Day this year and that Paulie Hanson will still lead One Nation. I agree with both predictions. On the states the conventional view is that Labor’s Peter Malinauskas will lead Labor to a very solid victory in South Australia at the general election on Saturday 21 March. I’ll give details of my predictions for that event in my second or third 2026 article for Switzer Daily. That will include my South Australian pendulum, which already appears on my website.

Turning overseas, the conventional prediction is that the US Republicans will lose some two dozen House of Representatives seats to the Democrats at the mid-term elections on Tuesday 3 November. That would mean the following: Mike Johnson (Republican, Louisiana) will no longer be Speaker because his place will be taken by Hakeem Jeffries (Democrat, New York). When he becomes Speaker on 3 January 2027, Jeffries will be the first black person to hold that office.

In the 119th Congress elected on Tuesday 5 November 2024 and first meeting on 3 January 2025, the numbers began as 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. My prediction for the 120thCongress is that it will begin with 240 Democrats and 195 Republicans. I’ll write an article for Switzer Daily giving more details as the event draws near.

Four days after the US midterm elections comes New Zealand’s general election for its House of Representatives on Saturday 7 November. The conventional prediction is that the National Party’s leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will remain in office as a result. Again, I agree with that prediction, and I’ll contribute another article for Switzer Daily giving details.

My unconventional predictions begin with the Victorian state election on Saturday 28 November. The conventional view is that Labor under Jacinta Allan will win again but with a reduced majority. I disagree. I think there will be a Liberal-National Coalition government with Liberal leader Jess Wilson as Premier. Again, I’ll give detailed predictions close to polling day.

My most controversial prediction for 2026 is that Sussan Ley will still be the Leader of the Opposition on Christmas Day. At that time, commentators will commend her ability to put back together the Liberal-National Coalition that had been broken by the National Party’s hissy fit in January 2026. In addition, I go further and predict that Sussan Ley will lead her party at the May 2028 federal general election.

Also controversial is my prediction that Senator Larissa Waters (Queensland) will lose her leadership of the Greens and be replaced by Senator Sarah Hanson-Young (South Australia).

Permit me at this stage to quote in full the opinion of former Liberal minister and Senate leader George Brandis. Writing in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on 29 December last year, he gave his “best performance” ratings for the parties. Of the crossbench he wrote: “Sarah Hanson-Young achieved in 2025 something I never thought possible for a Green: she managed to sound sensible. Her critique of the Optus triple zero debacle was measured and forensic. Her pragmatism (a very un-Green virtue) landed the deal with Labor on environmental laws. And she had the most brutal cut-through line on the Coalition’s decision to abandon net zero: ‘They’re nutters’. Perhaps it’s the fact that she has served in the Senate for longer than her Greens colleagues that has made Sarah a political grown-up. No wonder they won’t make her leader”.

While I think they will make her leader, I acknowledge that her use of travel entitlements has been contentious. Since her use was within the rules, I think she will ride out the storm in much the same way as Anika Wells and Don Farrell have ridden out a similar storm regarding their use of travel entitlements.

I predict that in 2026 the federal parliament will adopt my tripartite reform plan for the Senate electoral system. Politically, the important part is that each state would have 14 senators where at present the number is 12. That would have the effect that the House of Representatives would have 175 members where it now has 150. So, at the federal general election in May 2028 New South Wales will have eight more members, Victoria and Queensland each six more, Western Australia three more and South Australia two more.

There would, therefore, be a number of redistributions not otherwise needed – but the most interesting case is South Australia where the map is currently being redrawn. There are 10 SA federal electoral divisions, and the total number of electors is 1,307,863. Therefore, the quota is 130,786. However, no sooner will the new map have been adopted, but it will be cancelled. Then there will be a re-division into twelve seats with new numbers showing a quota of about 110,000 electors.

The maps of federal electoral divisions are also currently being redrawn in Tasmania and the ACT. Unlike SA, those new maps will go into immediate effect – since the increase in numbers will not change the fact of Tasmania having five seats and the ACT three. Consequent upon the constitutional requirement that every Original State shall have no fewer than five members the Tasmanian quota is only 82,635 electors compared with 130,786 for South Australia. Even with SA getting two more seats the Tasmanian quota will still be some thirty thousand less than for any Mainland State.

Let me conclude with some very bold and dangerous predictions. While I think Sussan Ley has done a pretty good job as Liberal leader I don’t think she will survive beyond failing to win the 2028 election. So, in June 2028, I predict that Josh Frydenberg will compete with Andrew Hastie to become the Leader of the Opposition. I am not willing to predict who will be the next long-term Prime Minister from the Liberal Party.

Traditionally the prize Sydney seat for the Liberal Party has been Bradfield while in Melbourne it has been Kooyong - both now narrowly held by “teal” independents. Given that these predicted extra seats will be created, I think both 2025 independent winners will still be in the House of Representatives. But Giselle Kapterian, the 2025 Bradfield Liberal candidate will also be in the House. Which of the 2025 winner, Nicolette Boele, or Kapterian will represent the seat called “Bradfield” I cannot say. Likewise in Melbourne I predict that both Monique Ryan and Josh Frydenberg will be in the House of Representatives. However, I cannot say which of the two will sit in the seat named “Kooyong”.

Let me conclude with a prediction way out on left field. Ask anyone who knows Canberra to name the winners of the 2028 ACT Senate contest and the universal answer you would get is “David Pocock and Katy Gallagher”. That is not my answer. The third part of my Senate reform plan has it that both Pocock and Gallagher (who were elected in 2025 to three-year terms) would have their terms extended to six years (like senators from states) so that their terms would expire on 30 June 2031.

So, the election of territory senators in 2028 will see completely new names. My prediction is that in the ACT Labor will win the first seat but that the second will go to the Liberal Party. In the Northern Territory Labor will win one and the second will go to the Country Liberal Party. The CLP senator, however, will join the Canberra caucus of the Nationals. Jacinta Nampijinpa Price with a term then expiring on 30 June 2031 will be the CLP senator sitting in the Canberra caucus of the Liberal Party.

(Malcolm Mackerras is an honorary fellow at Australian Catholic University.)