I've talked a LOT about trade and tariffs recently, but one thing that consumers always sit up and take notice about is the price of the Aussie dollar versus the US dollar. Good news, armchair forex watchers (read: international travellers looking for bargains): the US dollar is set to slide!

That's right: as Trump continues to wage economic warfare on the world, the US dollar is now on the slip and slide. After bottoming out around Liberation Day on April 2 at about 59 US cents to the dollar, it's now up to 65 cents per US dollar. Not astounding, but news indicates we may have more to celebrate on the horizon.

You see, the new valuation comes as our trade surplus shrank to $5.41 billion, which is well below the $6.9 billion recorded in March when Australia cracked the first monthly trade surplus with the United States since records began in the 1980s!

Behind this surplus fall was lower gold exports.

“In March, gold exports had spiked by $4.8 billion, driven by higher demand and price increases,” Lish Uhlman from proactoveinvestors.com.au wrote. “However, in April, exports reverted to more typical levels, reducing the overall trade surplus.”

But gold is tipped to rise again, with the policies of one Donald Trump are being blamed. The AFR’s Gus McCubbing today looked at the extrordinary outlook for gold. “The gold price could crack US$4000 per ounce this year, gifting miners the highest margins since the 1980s, if the US dollar continues its slide,” he revealed.

“That’s according to State Street Global Advisors gold strategy head Aakash Doshi, who says high inflation and low growth in the world’s largest economy, combined with so-called “dedollarisation” – where countries reduce their reliance on the greenback – could drive bullion to fresh records.”

Today, spot gold is $US3,359 an ounce, so that implies nearly a 20% gain from here!

This week, respected UK-based investment expert Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, explained why the greenback is set to be dumped, driving its global value down. This implies the Oz dollar has upside. The chart below shows that when the US dollar dives in red, the Aussie dollar rises and vice versa.

Green says the US dollar could slide by as much as 10% over the next 12 months.

US dollar down, and the worst is yet to come

His analysis joins a growing chorus of major financial institutions forecasting a deeper downturn for the greenback amid slowing growth, aggressive rate cuts and global trade disruption.

His team reports that “the US Dollar Index, already down nearly 10% from its February highs, and is forecast by deVere to tumble further, potentially hitting levels not seen since the early stages of the pandemic.”

“Investors need to brace for a pronounced decline in the dollar’s value,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “The combination of a shifting interest rate landscape, intensifying trade headwinds, and the recalibration of global capital flows is likely to weigh heavily on the currency. The US no longer holds the same interest rate advantage it once did, and that gap is only going to widen as cuts accelerate.”

Nigel Green isn’t an aggressive finger pointer but his analysis of a dollar dumping ahead is all down to the crazy policies of Donald Trump. If you need proof, check this story out from CNBC this morning.

Elon Musk is publicly opposing Trump’s big beautiful tax bill and after a Trump reaction, Tesla’s share price slumped 16%! This wasn’t helped by Trump calling Musk “CRAZY”, threatening “to cut his companies’ government contracts as the two men feuded over a major tax bill”, CNBC reports.

“With a slowing domestic economy and growing political unpredictability (especially on the trade front) global investors are increasingly questioning the dollar’s dominance,” Green said. “This is a moment of reassessment — not only of US economic resilience but also of the role the dollar plays in the world’s financial architecture.”

Being British, Green is being polite but his whole story says the US President is sinking the dollar. This is important news for investors, who should think about hedging their US investments. In fact, we’ve been doing this for our financial planning clients for some time on the expectation that the Oz dollar was likely to rise.

And for travellers, the US looks like a cheaper holiday for the next few years.

All we Aussies need is for China to start a decent economic comeback and that will also add to the value of the local dollar.

Significantly, Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping talked on Thursday. CNBC tells us that “Trump said he had a ‘very good’ call with Xi for about 90 minutes, which focused ‘almost entirely’ on trade.

If it wasn’t Donald Trump, you’d be buoyed by the news. But with this guy, his unpredictability is bad for investing but good for the local dollar, at least for now!

Since Trump U-turned on his Liberation Day tariffs, our dollar is up 10% to $65.12 US cents today.