Uncertainty is the greatest problem the Trump presidency has given US and global stock markets. Over the past two days there have been legal decisions about the Trump tariffs that can only be seen as curve balls for stock players.

The first positive curve ball came yesterday when we learnt that a US trade court blocked President Donald Trump from using emergency powers to impose his reciprocal tariffs on imports from a long list of countries, including Australia.

A three-judge panel at the New York-based Court of International Trade argued that the President exceeded his authority and that the tariffs were not acceptable under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Interestingly, CNBC reports that the “three judges — Jane Restani, Timothy Reif and Gary Katzmann — were appointed to the federal bench by two Republicans, Presidents Ronald Reagan and Trump, and one Democrat, Barack Obama, respectively.”

Their decision invalidated dozens of country-specific tariffs listed on April 2, which President Trump called Liberation Day. This was positive news for the stock market, as this legal decision took away the tariff threat to company profits and was a positive sign for stock prices.

But in true American movie tradition there has been an appeal by the Trump team and another US court has reinstated the Trump tariffs, with the order by the Federal Court of Appeals providing no opinion or reasoning but simply directing the plaintiffs in the case to respond by June 5 and the administration by June 9.

But wait, there’s more

Later on Thursday, a second Federal Court judge declared a number of Trump’s tariffs were enacted by using emergency powers unlawfully, but he limited his decision to the family-owned business that sued, delaying the order from taking effect for 14 days to allow the Justice Department time to appeal.

Not surprisingly, President Trump and his team aren’t happy and CNBC captured their ire:

“The Supreme Court must put an end to this,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday afternoon, in a blistering attack on the three judges who struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and other duties. “The judges brazenly abused their judicial power to usurp the authority of President Trump to stop him from carrying out the mandate that the American people gave him.

“These judges are threatening to undermine the credibility of the United States on the world stage.”

That last comment is bound to bring a lot of laughter from those in the world who’ve never thought that Trump and his tariffs had been a plus for US credibility. In fact, the US judicial system’s credibility now goes on show and, importantly, stock markets and global investors will be waiting with bated breath.

You see, if the tariffs are ruled illegal, markets will like that as it reduces uncertainty of a global trade war in the not-too-distant future. Sure, Trump will try other ways to impose tariffs on the likes of China and the EU, but he will have to use more conventional ways, and he will require support from Congress.

Wall Street did finish in positive territory, but the gains would have been bigger if the tariffs were done and dusted. The appeals process adds to uncertainty so we have to expect uncertainty to prevail until we see what the appeals court rules. “In general, markets don’t like uncertainty, because it makes forecasting more difficult,” said Larry Tentarelli, founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report:

“We expect the tariff news cycle to be an extended process, which can lead to higher short-term volatility.”

This guy is absolutely right but uncertainty and volatility are what you get when the US thought it was a good idea to make Donald Trump their President.