With the tip today that the election will be on May 3, ultimately businesses want a leader whose political party is pro-business and addresses the costs of businesses, the laws of hiring and firing, as well as providing the sectors customers with the tax and interest rate relief that will boost incomes and demand.

In a perfect world, business as a group would know what party in government will deliver lower budget deficits (even surpluses), lower inflation, lower interest rates and stronger economic growth, which then delivers lower unemployment.

That’s a big call for leaders of businesses to work all the above out with confidence. So, this longer-term view on who creates the best economy in the future often gets down to a matter of faith.

So, let’s look for the business promises that will turn Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton into the business pin-up boy for the May election.

As this is the freshest, following his budget reply, this is what business would like and dislike from Mr Dutton:

1. Lower petrol prices, which is good for business costs and demand from customers.
2. The fuel-related tax relief is bigger and comes in the short term, namely when the current Opposition becomes the Government.
3. Lower power bills via his promise to make current energy exporters direct between 10% to 20% more product into the domestic market.Most businesses will like this but the exporters of gas, who’ll be threatened with penalties for not following directions, won’t.
4. Cutting immigration by 25% wouldn’t be seen as pro-business generally because new immigrants drive economic growth. However, higher immigration (more people, more demand) has been seen as a reason for higher inflation and hasn’t helped bring lower interest rates, so many businesses could support this policy.
5. A promise to increase the number of apprentices and trainees by 400,000 would be a thumbs up policy.

So, what is the PM’s bid for business support?

1. Tax relief for longer than one year, which the fuel excise cut is earmarked for. Businesses pay taxes and their customers will use tax cuts to buy ‘stuff’ from businesses.
2. One million small businesses receive the $150 energy bill rebate.
3. The promise to ban non-compete clauses will help those employees who plan to become self-employed contractors/entrepreneurs but the businesses, who could see their clients poached by former employees, will ‘hate’ this Labor offering.
4. The Government isn’t proposing to extend the instant asset write-off tax measure that ends in June this year.
5. The beer excise is frozen for two years, which helps smaller brewers.
6. Real estate agents won’t like the ATO to get money to ensure overseas investors don’t buy existing homes.

Both leaders are promising to spend big. As the AFR’s Phillip Coorey pointed out: “The Coalition [is] already copying Labor’s policies on Medicare and lower prescription prices”.

The big point of difference making business lean towards a Dutton-led Opposition will be lower fuel and power prices and less chance that employees will be able to steal their clients and their intellectual property.

Labor’s more generous attitudes to the workers in the labour market make it very hard for business owners to want an Anthony Albanese pin-up boy calendar on their workplace fridge!