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Ron Bewley

22 May 2013
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble

What a difference a day (or two) makes! I started writing this piece on Tuesday 19 February - hence the title. I put all of the charts together on that day but I didn’t have time to write until today – and we ‘kinda’ know the answer now – or do we? What happens next? […]

2 May 2012
Woodhall's Wall Street Connections

The S&P 500 lost 0.8 per cent and the ASX 200 gained 1.4 per cent over April. This small disconnect, in part, allowed both markets to finish the month with about the same degree of mispricing - around +1 per cent. This level playing field makes going forward easier for our market. Earlier in the […]

4 April 2012
Woodhall's April Wall Street Connections

Key points The S&P 500 gained 3.1 per cent and the ASX 200 0.8 per cent over March making the year-to-date gains 12 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively. For the ASX 200, the market is still about fair-priced but with some big some across sectors. Materials is severely underpriced at -6.9 per cent, […]

1 March 2012
Woodhall's March Wall Street Connections

The S&P 500 gained 4.1 per cent and the ASX 200 0.9 per cent over February making the year-to-date gains 8.6 per cent and six per cent, respectively. For the ASX 200, the market is still about fair-priced but with some variation across sectors. Industrials and Discretionary are somewhat overpriced. Materials, Staples and IT are […]

6 February 2012
Woodhall's February Wall Street connections

Both the S&P 500 and the AXSX 200 enjoyed excellent returns during January. For a change, our index grew by 5.1 or 0.7 per cent better than the US. But these increases bring with them an erosion of the underpricing that was so prevalent during the second half of 2011. For the ASX 200, the […]

31 January 2012
Woodhall's weekly facts and figures - 28 January 2012

Volatility For the first time since before the US debt-ratings downgrade, market volatility returned to the average level of pre-GFC volatility. The ASX 200 posted another gain of just over one per cent for the week following a string of weekly gains for the year – totalling 5.7 per cent for the year-to-date. Fear Fear […]

5 October 2011
Q3 market review

Big picture Being an investor in the third quarter felt like an old boxer after having gone a few rounds with Mike Tyson. The fall in the market brought back the horrors of 2008 and, just when things seemed to be getting a little better at the end of August, the market found a new […]

17 August 2011
It's still the dollar!

The ASX 200 has traded sideways for 18 months while the S&P 500 boomed and bust. Our argument that we put forward in a January 2011 edition of Money Management and again on SWITZER on 2 March still holds. We are moving in lock-step with the US when we price both in the same currency! […]

15 July 2011
Wall Street connection, No. 1, 2011

Key points We have applied the investment methodology that we developed for the ASX 200 to the US market and found that, without any adjustments, the same technology seems to work equally well in both markets. Our forecast for capital growth on the S&P 500 is about 13 per cent for 2010/11 which is a […]

6 July 2011
Quant quarterly - trends and forecasts

Big picture Again we got ever so close to the 5000 barrier on the ASX 200 (4971 on 11 April) but the US being warned by S&P about their debt ceiling and the Australian dollar put paid to that rally. After reaching a low of 4451 on 20 June (a technical correction), a welcome rally […]

11 April 2011
Quant Quarterly - charting the markets

Big picture Just after the world seemed to be settling down – European debt problems were subsiding and US growth was firming – we had everything but the kitchen sink thrown our way in the first quarter. Q1 was brim full of tragedy: floods, cyclone Yasi, Christchurch earthquake, Egypt, Libya, Japan (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear […]

3 February 2011
Why forecast the stock market?

Over Christmas, I read a blog on an online newspaper about ‘top strategists’ forecasts of the stock market. Quite rightly, the blogger wondered about what the point is of asking so-called experts what will happen in the market over 2011 when they all typically get it wrong. I wasn’t cited in the article upon which […]

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