You can learn a lot about any event by looking at the data that goes into it. This is especially true with sports: a multi-billion dollar global industry that uses techniques anchored in financial analysis to predict the outcome of a particular match-up. But there’s one market that finance experts are steering well clear of, and that’s who will be the next Pope.

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It’s no secret that Australians love a bet. We’re the second biggest dice-rollers, bet-makers, risk-runners and wager-makers in the world, in fact. The average Australian spends over $1600 a year just on gambling, putting us only behind the United States at just over $1900 a year. 

Believe it or not but our fine island is home to almost 20% of the “pokie” machines in the entire world despite making up less than 0.3% of the world’s population. We’re also one of the only countries where, every year, we stop to celebrates the “race that stops the nation”, and gamble in the hundreds of millions. 

And the gambling industrial complex will typically allow you to bet on just about anything, too, especially in Australia. There’s even an annual report that finance-types such as myself hang out for: Macquarie Bank’s quantitative analysis of the Melbourne Cup field. Every year since 2007, a team of researchers put their spreadsheets together to come up with the real “favourite” of the Cup according to quantitative research.

Their methodology includes using risk factors like value, momentum and quality to evaluate the horses, before assigning ratings to them based on “market sentiment” of punters currently placing bets. By its own admission, the “research” is just a bit of fun. The model itself has only ever really played out as predicted a couple of times in the last 15 years.

But while the Macquarie modelling is just a bit of fun for Cup Day, many former finance professionals that used to work for banks and funds have actually left to start their own data shops. Their focuses are mainly around on tracking all the data around a particular sport to provide data to bookmakers and other private clients to help set odds.

So with much interest in betting on just about anything, surely there’d be a statistical or quantitative analysis on who would be the next leader of the Catholic Church? Not so much, actually.

Sistine Chapel sweepstakes off the cards for market experts

Following Pope Francis’ death at the age of 88 on 21 April 2025, the Catholic electoral machine began to swing back into life, as preparations began for the conclave that would declare the next Pontiff.

133 Cardinals - representing the largest conclave in history - have now been sealed off from the outside world in the Sistine Chapel ahead of the first vote in the coming hours.

Sure, you can find betting markets all over the internet specifically geared towards who will be the next Pope, but after much research, this writer has not yet located a single finance expert or quant team who wants to weigh in on the Papacy. 

One senior quant I spoke to from an unnamed institution today told me that “it’s a bit sensitive” for them to touch. 

Another simply laughed as I asked of the existence of quantitative Papal odds for the current conclave.

A remarked that it wasn’t a “market sensitive announcement”, so they were unlikely to spend any time on it. And indeed they were right: typically Pope’s don’t move markets, but depending on where the new Pope stands on certain issues could move market sentiment, morally speaking, my quant source added.

So if you want to find out who’s going to be to wear the Fisherman’s Ring, you’d best get to watching the chimney like the rest of us. (There’s actually a live stream, if you’re interested!)