This week we've been talking about whether the sizeable downturn in global markets is just a wobble or a massive correction - maybe even a bubble on the verge. While stock volatility is one way to take the market's temperature, there's another way to help us check how traders are really feeling.

We've talked about it before, but it's our good friend: the global Volatility Index, also known as the VIX. 

It's basically the stress-index for global markets. It estimates the expected volatility of the S&P 500 (and locally, provided you look at the right one) over the next 30 days. Under normal conditions the index might hover in the teens. Average conditions - which we kind of haven't had for a while - put the VIX on a simmer at around 20. But in In times of major upheaval, the VIX can spike dramatically. 

During the early onset of COVID‑19 in March 2020 it closed at an all time high of just over 82. In early March 2022 when Putin and his forces started their ill-advised Ukrainian sojourn, the VIX rose from around 28 to 37.5 the next day. For the hostilities in Gaza following the October 6 attacks and onward into 2023, the VIX oscillated in the 30s.  

Each of these events are not only geopolitically sensitive, but also market-sensitive. One link in the global supply chain drops and it risks the whole global economy. Great system we have here, right! So what has the most recent downturn, sparked by sticky inflation, Powell's comments about interest rates and a growing concern that AI ain't what the market thinks it is, done to the index?

US S&P500 VIX as of 19 Nov 2025

Over the last week, the S&P500's VIX (above) has jumped over 38% from a tepid 18 points at the start of last week through to a peak of over 25 yesterday.

Australia's VIX (below), which hovers around 10 points at its most calm yesterday spiked up to 14 points. To give you an idea of how that reflects on our local market's feelings, when Donald Trump first announced his tariff package on "Liberation Day" back in April, the local index spiked to 19.3.

Australia's ASX200 VIX as at 19 November 2025

So while the market isn't panicking like people are pointing weapons at each other, the numbers show that the culture of fear has definitely taken over global trading floors.