This week, investors will shift focus from a busy February reporting season to key economic data, headlined by Australia’s fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday.
This week, attention turns to economic data following the February reporting season. The key release locally is fourth-quarter GDP on Wednesday, with Commonwealth Bank economists expecting growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. Recent private capital expenditure and construction figures suggest business investment made only a limited contribution to growth in the final quarter of 2025.</p>
<p>In the US, earnings season is winding down while investors focus on fresh economic readings, including manufacturing surveys, ADP employment data and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
Information sourced from CommSec.
Monday March 2
Melbourne Institute Inflation (February)
Inflation is tipped to rise 0.7% month-on-month — an early signal ahead of official CPI data.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (February)
Expected to ease to 51.8 from 52.4.
US ISM Manufacturing (February)
Forecast to edge lower from 52.6 to 52.3.
US Earnings: AST SpaceMobile, MongoDB.
Tuesday March 3
Building Approvals (January)
December approvals fell 14.9% month-on-month — markets will look for stabilisation.
US Earnings: CrowdStrike Holdings.
Wednesday March 4
GDP (Q4 2025)
CBA forecasts 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth. Recent capex and construction data suggest business investment was weak in the quarter.
US ADP Employment Change (February)
A gain of 43,000 jobs is forecast, up from 22,000 in the prior month.
US ISM Services Index (February)
Could lift slightly to 53.9 from 53.8.
US Earnings: Broadcom.
Thursday March 5
Trade Balance (January)
A goods trade surplus of $4.2 billion is expected.
Household Spending (January)
December spending fell 0.4% month-on-month but remains 5% higher year-on-year.
US Initial Jobless Claims (Week ended Feb 28)
215,000 claims are expected.
US Earnings: JD Sports Fashion, Costco.
Friday March 6
US Retail Sales (January)
A 2% year-on-year gain is forecast.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (February)
An increase of 60,000 jobs is expected.
US Unemployment Rate (February)
Tipped to rise to 4.4% from 4.3%.
