BHP stock has long been a bedrock of the Australian market — a go-to for dividends, exposure to global growth, and a gauge of commodity sentiment. But in 2024 it underwhelmed.

Now, as we move into the second half of the year, investors are asking a sharper question: can you actually make money on BHP in 2025?

On this week’s episode of Switzer Investing TV, both our chartist-in-residence Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities and Shaw and Partners’ Adam Dawes weighed in — offering a clearer picture of what’s really going on behind the share price.

Where are we now?

Over the last 12 months, the ASX200 has made a slow but steady climb, getting close to its previous record highs.

It has been helped along by improving inflation, the hope of interest rate cuts, and stronger performance from sectors like tech and consumer stocks.

BHP, on the other hand, hasn’t kept up. Its share price is still well below where it was a year ago. The main reason? Iron ore prices have come down, China hasn’t bounced back as strongly as expected, and investors are less confident that BHP’s big dividends will hold. While the broader market has been moving forward, BHP has mostly been stuck in place — or going backwards.

The technicals: signs of a bottom?

Switzer Investing TV’s expert chart surfer Michael Gable of Fairmont Equities says BHP’s chart is quietly improving.

“It does seem to be turning around,” he said. “After briefly breaking that [support], it bounced right back up… consolidated a bit… and then a few weeks ago, it’s back higher again.”

Gable points out that the recent pullbacks haven’t shown signs of aggressive selling — a shift from earlier this year when the price action looked more volatile and reactive. He sees BHP as having potentially formed a bottom.

“It took BHP only about five days to rally…but in the past two weeks it’s slowly come back and retested — that’s a good sign,” he said. “It doesn’t demonstrate a lot of heavy selling. It looks like it’s going to head on[wards].”

So the bleeding may have stopped, and the market might be recalibrating. If you’re a technical trader, that’s not a bad place to be.

Dividends, China, and Trump

But while the chart certainly looks more calm compared to recent action, the fundamentals still carry risk — especially if you’re buying for income or short-term capital growth.

Shaw and Partners’ Adam Dawes didn’t sugarcoat it when he spoke on Switzer Investing TV:

“It’s going to be a little bit tough,” he said. “Dividends are being squeezed at every angle.”

The key pressure point? Iron ore prices.

Prices for our world-famous resource hovered near US$100 for months — defying expectations. But now they’ve slipped into the low 90s, putting downward pressure on earnings and, by extension, dividend payouts.

“Iron ore’s been defying gravity… now it’s finally slipped to around US$95,” Dawes said. “There’s talk about Trump’s deal with Nippon Steel — that might pull prices back.”

Geopolitical factors — particularly with the latest steel and aluminium tariffs from Trump — are now back on the table. The commodity cycle is shifting under investors’ feet, and BHP’s dependence on iron ore keeps it squarely in the line of fire.

Can you actually make money on BHP this year?

That depends on what kind of investor you are.

If you’re chasing yield, be aware that dividend strength is weakening — especially if iron ore slides further. If you’re looking for a contrarian entry point, the technicals suggest BHP may be forming a base.

Some analysts have set price targets as high as 25% above current levels — but those forecasts are built on improving sentiment from China, a stable US dollar, and no major supply disruptions. When was the last time those planets aligned?

Right now, the stock sits somewhere between bargain and value trap. There’s no screaming buy signal — but no screaming sell, either.

And that might be enough to put BHP back on the radar for investors with patience, a longer view, and a high tolerance for noise.

Remember to do your own research for your own circumstances. This article does not take into account your personal circumstances.